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The road not (yet?) taken is the full flowering of the HyperCards, the Visual Basics, the Macromind Directors and Flashes...

That is, the idea that a non-expert might create interesting software in an authoring environment with good, well-thought-out building blocks and easy-to-grasp metaphors, shorn of layers of accidental or over-engineered complexity.

In this vision software still requires careful logical thinking, but it makes it much less cumbersome to translate that thinking into running code, with no tooling and build system nightmares.

Instead, we've invented such powerful models that they can regurgitate and recombine complex incantations on our behalf. The complexity is still there, though, and it's still inscrutable to non-experts.

But maybe they can help us eliminate some of it?

I think that path is still possible, and it may even nicely complement the LLM world, where LLMs help generate software that individual humans can still easily comprehend and manually modify.

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> an authoring environment with good, well-thought-out building blocks and easy-to-grasp metaphors, shorn of layers of accidental or over-engineered complexity.

I strive to make these kinds of tools.

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I have told this to many friends who scoff at me, but using a computer is very clearly going to also mean "having the computer create programs for you". We won't even think or know about it.

To me, it isn't a matter of if, and the matter of when is also very clearly in "at most 10 years, probably much, much earlier", given that I have relatives already doing this without knowing how to code.

This is a future of computing I am absolutely in love with, and is so incredibly empowering!

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> It was imagined that programming would become easy enough that anyone could learn to do it.

Arguably LLMs take us further away from that than we've ever been. All they do is automate copying and pasting in shit from StackOverflow.

We were closer to everyone being able to learn how to program computers in the mid-80s when everyone had one and they started up with a BASIC prompt.

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Ah yes, the 80s, when everyone had a computer.
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Well, yeah. The home computer revolution.

Literally everyone had a ZX Spectrum, or Commodore 64, or a BBC Micro if their parents were rich and thought that having the same as they had at school was a good idea.

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If you change "literally everyone" to "a minority" we can agree.
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Well, no, because it wasn't a minority.

They were cheap and ubiquitous, unless I suppose you were in one of "Iron Curtain" countries.

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A quick google query says 15% of US households own a personal computer in 1989.
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Okay, well, it was far more than that in the UK and Europe.

I suppose it's a bit like television, it would have been more popular where it was invented.

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Around 5 million ZX Spectrums were sold between 1982 and 1992. If all were sold in the UK (they weren’t), that would put the penetration around 25% based on the number of households in 1990.
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One specific model of ZX Spectrum, which is one specific make and model of home computer.

Did you live in the UK in the 1980s?

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Asking chatgpt, in UK in late 80s, it would be 20-25% across all computers, depending on definition of "computer". A 1/4 of households is still high. It may have been higher in your neck of the woods.
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> Did you live in the UK in the 1980s?

Yes.

> One specific model of ZX Spectrum

I do not believe this to be the case, that number appears to include the 128K and the Amstrad variants also.

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My house did not have a computer in it until 1992. I knew many people who did not have a computer in the house in the 1980s. Computers were expensive!
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Even in the early 80s they were 100 quid, that was nothing.
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> We're not there yet but with LLMs we're getting closer.

I feel I'm there. Whenever I have a problem I definitely ask "should I vibe code an app for that?"

My current Swift app has 15K LoC (5K in tests, 10K implementation) and it is finished. Like, there are minor improvements now, but it does what it needs to do. It took me 20 hours. I think the actual thing would personally take me 500 hours as I haven't programmed in Swift.

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LLMs are great for problem exploration. Especially with the decline of Google I think we're at a point where it's less difficult to get an LLM to spit out something that'll accomplish a task sorta compared to actually finding that on the internet. But if the task is going to be repeated or modified then I think LLMs are at a permanent disadvantage to prebuilt software. Even if that prebuilt software is just someone else running an LLM and then passing the output through acceptance testing most people just don't want the headache of debugging weird edge cases and the novelty of "I'm a developer too!" wears off pretty quickly.

I'm excited that the weird grey-zone of excel sheets with business critical logic is likely going to disappear as LLMs slowly make the logic driving those too complex to be comprehended and managed and those get foisted off onto actual engineering resources. It'll be painful but probably for the best... but for actual tools people need to use day-to-day I think the assurance that the tool will work has a lot more value than the AI hype has comprehended.

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> Especially with the decline of Google

Oddly enough, Google’s LLM is the only one that has been answering my questions well on a research project these last weeks. I’m getting information from scanned text files that exist on the internet but were never adequately OCRed by other LLM companies (i.e. both OCRed at all, and moreover OCRed as the specific language in question that picks up all the diacritics). Google search results may be disappointing and polluted for years, but the company is still offering a useful product in another tab of its interface.

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I've found Gemini to be very helpful in figuring out all the fiddly linux problems that used to require reading endless forum posts and digging through docs.
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> Oddly enough, Google’s LLM is the only one that has been answering my questions well on a research project these last weeks.

Google Search declined in quality when results started containing more noise (more ads, SEO spam) that required sifting through. Gemini isn't displaying all that garbage.. yet.

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My fears with the situation you are describing is that we end up without a common file format, if everyone has a propietary app and/or file system then that makes transition or collaboration a pain.

We probably won't end there due to how lazy most of us are, but it's certainly something to consider

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I feel like I'm way more cynical than most people around here about LLMs but if we accept the parent comment's framing, why can't we just use an LLM to write a throw-away converter to whatever new format is necessary? Yes of course it'll probably be lossy occasionally but the question will be, is that ok for the user doing the conversion?
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That's going to be huge thing in the future I think

Everyone having their own hyperspecific apps or even different UIs/visualization in the same app

The whole idea of an application becomes a much more fluid thing

If your app is built with a dynamic language why not let users re-write the code themself and add whole new features

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This is why open source has been great and will only get better
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It’s exactly what I use LLMs for as a non-computer professional.
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