The thing is, pretty much everyone relevant assumes it is a bubble and that eventually large players will end up facing mob justice. That's why the hundreds of billions of $ IOUs are getting passed around like hot potatoes, and that's (in addition to ASML, the key part of anything EUV lithography, being booked out for years) why no one is planning to construct dozens of billions of dollars worth of fabs.

In addition, the know-how is concentrated in Taiwan. You literally can't train enough people in enough time to move everything out of there.

We aren't talking about making new lug-nuts. A company can't just will a fab into existence.

For example, Micron is actively building a few new fabs. One of which has been in progress since Biden (pretty close to my home in fact). It's not going to be completed for another 5 years at a minimum. And this is a company that has the experience and partnerships for producing fabs.

Yes, a new company might decide they want to enter the market, but even if they decided, today, "Yes we'll do this" I'd expect a minimum of a decade before they start spinning out their first chips. That's also at least a $1T investment at this point to get started.

So yea, Samsung built a chip factory pretty close to where I live. Number one it is forking gigantic. You don't just slap one of these babies down. Next, the equipment that goes inside of that massive clean room building is a problem in itself. That takes years to get ordered, then years to ensure it works right, with employees that have a very particular skill set.

Again, people might want part of it, but they are also a bit smarter than you are and read history books to see exactly how this is going to play out and then they gladly walk away before they light their money on fire.

Absolutely. "If this isn't a bubble and demand persists" is doing a lot of heavy lifting there, though, and it may be some time before manufacturers decide that's the case.