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I would suspect at Apple scale it makes sense.

Apple has started making a lot of different things in house, its only a matter of time imo.

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It memory almost certainly is coming in house all you need to do is look at Apple’s history Intel out, Broadcom out, Qualcomm on the way out, Nvidia has been out for a long time, AMD is also out. Apple has the capability and the money, the current market conditions have changed I believe Apple will make plans and move on.
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> Apple has started making a lot of different things in house, its only a matter of time imo.

Define "making". Sure, they design a lot of stuff in-house (CPUs/SoCs, wireless chipsets, etc), but they do not manufacture these things in-house: they have no fabs themselves.

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Definition: Apple is the architect and engineer, and someone else will do the fab probably TSMC who is also motivated to keep their engines running?
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Given the current issue is with fab capacity, what would Apple gain by being the architect/engineer of RAM? They hand off the 'blueprints' to someone who is already at capacity?

And it's not about motivation, but capacity: everything is currently at 100%. To get more capacity means building more fabs, and given the historically cyclical nature of semiconductors not may people want to necessarily take that risk (potentially end up with over capacity). And it wouldn't help now, as it takes >2 years to build a fab.

Unless the suggestion is for Apple to design M- and A-series CPUs with the memory circuitry in-die instead of on-package? (Using up some 'transistor budget' for RAM.)

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Once again, Apple is already given the bums rush to five other companies when they got in the way of what they wanted to build Apple isn’t going to sit around, based upon their recent history in the last 20 years and do nothing.

I don’t understand why that’s so hard to understand and I certainly don’t think Apple will hesitate with a new technocrat CEO coming in September 2026, if Apple had a “slug” MBA person coming in September, I might buy the argument that they may not do anything but they have shown that they are capable of playing the long game when necessary.

I wish I could’ve been a fly on the wall 5-6 years ago to see what the conversation was like on Hacker News when rumors of Apple replacing Intel came up. I bet it was much of the same. Oh no, don’t do anything.

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I doubt they want to make a commodity.

But who knows. Their unified memory architecture across core types already puts them in a different design space. Maybe that design space leads them to further opportunities for memory architecture differentiation.

I could see them (1) taking the two processing chips that make up an Ultra in coming generations, (2) fabbed with logic on top, and power distributed on the back side, as Intel is going for, and (3) sandwiching the logic sides around a layer of unified RAM, with (4) massive optical linking distributed across the surfaces, resulting in (5) unbelievable bandwidths and parallelism we couldn't dream of today.

And then, (6) announcing it at WWDC 2029 and (7) taking my money 5 minutes after the midnight when pre-order's start.

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(5.5) cool the whole thing in a way nobody else manages because of their vertical integration.
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But memory is a quite a specialist manufacturing process, they couldn't just send a design to TSMC and get the same quality and cost. It would take years (decades) to create their own factories that might be able to produce competitive memory. If they use a third party to manufacture with existing skills (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron etc) they might as well just use their designs too (and buy their chips)
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Static RAM needs 6 transistors per cell, an M2 Ultra has 134 billion transistors, do the division and you get... "it doesn't work that way".
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Static RAM is not DRAM.

You certainly could do try a 20bn cell SRAM, in 155mm^2, if you could handle the routing, but the power consumption might surprise you.

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"Decades" seems excessive
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in a sense that's exactly what cartel wants - to lure out investments that will get squashed into uselessness by supply flood that will follow
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The key is Apple can be their own customer and just not care anymore.

It’ll probably only be worth it if it enables something “new” like more bigger Ultra chips or something.

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and that's part of risk management, on both sides

does Apple have enough of a design moat to overcome eventual overprice compared to competitors when "outisde" production is 2,4,10x cheaper

does Apple have enough of income/savings to maintain internal production capacity if it decides to switch back to outside sources

or can Apple acquire enough fab competence to negate internal/external price difference

we'll see how it plays out

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long-term if you want to build new devices, which are smaller faster better memory is gonna have to come in house. How does the Apple Vision, Apple Watch get smaller and four or five times faster? How do you make those Apple Glasses in the future if you don’t have that capability memory, modem etc.. in house?
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Who is the cartel?

SK Hynix, Samsung and Micron?

They should be banned.

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This AI memory crisis will be their last big payday. I think the Chinese will take advantage of this and take over the memory market worldwide, excluding the United States and some parts of Europe. The rest of the world will end up using Chinese memory.
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This is probably the natural conclusion but it will take some time to get there
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Or they can go to existing manufacturers with bags of money and have the experts build them their own production lines, and secure the supply.
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they blew it! They could have bought Intel for cheap and made memory AND CPUs!
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Apple knows better than to buy a pile of incompetent smugs. Intel was rock bottom before Europe determined it was a “strategic move”[1] to buy factories in Europe from the only manufacturer that hasn’t innovated since 20 years, quickly followed by the US. In both cases, governments aren’t the most savvy spenders.

[1] A “strategic” expense is named like this when you can’t justify it by any rational means.

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I shall keep this brief. Intel sucks. Intel and Microsoft rested on their laurels and now they’re playing catch-up Microsoft may hang in there, but overall worldwide Intel is in trouble.
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