China is building for the future, while Western Democracies are afraid of the future, and of their own shadow.
Of course, like literally every other time this has played out in computing history, the companies focused on price performance will end up with more economic resources, and get to turn the upgrade crank more often and for longer.
Also, of course, China's way ahead of the US on things like renewables, batteries, and electrification of their economy. All of that feeds into cheaper power to run the models, but I suspect it's a second order effect vs. "improve the software".
They're subsidizing this in many ways - Huawei chips, new DDR5 memory fabs, etc.
Ultimately, DeepSeek's architecture is significantly more cost effective than anything from Google, OpenAI, or Anthropic.
Presumably, they'll incorporate DeepSeek's MLA* architecture to get all the benefits for next year's releases (if not this year's upcoming releases) which will bring down their costs...
They need to actually make money, though, so that might still not give them enough room to make enough money.
Ultimately, hardware depreciation is like 80% of total spending. So power is not as big of a deal in cost. The bigger problem is if you can get the power at all, not how expensive it is.
If you want to bring down inference costs, using less hardware is far more effective than getting cheaper electricity.
Google is in a sweet spot, because they aren't paying 80% margins to nVidia for hardware. So they're probably paying half as much deprecation as everyone else is (or maybe 1/4th for inference - which is now the biggest percentage overall).
Like there was something in the American DNA that was lacking in China and innovation would always need to happen here.
But China it seems doesn’t need the US to produce great cars, devices, robotics, or AI. We absolutely need China to help us build all of the above.
We also can’t blame subsidy. All countries subsidize their industries.
This video on the auto industry covers a different industry but has a lot of the same rhymes as far as China’s strategy:
https://youtube.com/watch?v=UhhZu0ZHdw4
The gist of it is that China does the following:
1. Treats low margin industries like mining and utilities as areas to focus investment and come up with incremental improvements, making those available to all companies. The West, by contrast, allows private companies to handle those industries, who logically don’t bother investing in them since their investors consider those basic industries to be low-value segments of the production chain. But now we see those advantages in China where investments have been made (e.g., the best battery chemistries and mining, the cheapest power (when was the last time your local utility company focused on reducing pricing?)).
2. Because all companies in China have access to the same excellent infrastructure, they must compete furiously on quality of their products.
3. China allows foreign competition so long as they operate in China (see: Tesla) further insisting that their domestic products be globally competitive and that foreign products sold in their country benefit their local ecosystem.
China can certainly design an inflatable barbecue. China can certainly biuld an inlfatable barbecue. But will the chinese people ever want and buy an inflatable barbecue? ... never. That is why the US will remain the premier consumer economy.
There's nothing special about anything we design in the US other than time and money commitment to create it. China did have some espionage of course going on, but the vast majority of shit isn't some secret. And with the US shitting on China with restrictions, we increasingly caused them to invest time and money into things they otherwise would have passively accepted as coming from the west. ASML sees the writing on the wall for themselves in particular.
The US has generally resorted to propaganda rather than addressing the self-inflicted structural conditions responsible for the erosion of our dominance. China also conducted a broad, sustained, large-scale campaign of IP theft across almost every industry.
Obviously there is no natural law preventing China from innovating (We have treated political liberalism as a prerequisite to innovation in a way that was always partly self-congratulatory), but it's also obviously true that the speed of the gap closure is due in significant part to theft.
That doesn't change the fact that they are now a legitimate competitor who has gotten a lot of things right (and among these, some things that we get very wrong) and probably actually leads in some areas.
I have some exposure to utility regulation and from what I can tell some of the AI companies are "good actors" and willing to shoulder some of the burden. But others are pretty adversarial and want a free lunch.
Not long ago we were crying death to bitcoin, it’s going to destroy the planet.
Come AI, with unlimited power demand. Everybody screaming we need more power.
We need infrastructure, clean energy, even nuclear. We are doing all in the wrong order.
For context, EU added 65 and US 43.
In one year, China _added_ almost the total capacity EU has.
China is the one place where AI actually can use clean energy…
The future is blatantly going to be electric. Between cars, heat pumps, ranges, etc, the quantity of kilowatt hours consumed will rise dramatically per capita because they are replacing burned fossil fuels.
We don't need to subsidize the trillion dollar companies, we can settle for just not cancelling wind and solar projects, and generally updating the grid infrastructure.
A rising tide lifts all boats. If the subsidies go to common infrastructure, that's good for everyone. There's no need to complain about a road being paved because it will benefit FedEx in addition to everyone else.
What? No it isn't.
There are many places the government could use to appropriate funds, not just social services. The military, for example. Other subsidies. Tax credits. Simply increasing the debt.
Tell it to the guy doing just that, as much as possible.
Their cost of energy is what matters vs the US as much as speed buildout.
You might say that US would prefer sovereignty but that's a separate argument vis-a-vis strategic competition with China in particular.
Is there actually a huge Chinese consumer market for these products? If not then I'm not sure how you ever actually achieve this endpoint. Chinese wages and American wages are not nearly the same thing yet.
> It will simply be absolutely cheaper (including profit margin) to serve tokens in China.
It will simply create more pollution and environmental destruction too.
> China is building for the future
That's the plan. Whether that's true requires an honest analysis.
> while Western Democracies are afraid of the future
Developed nations take fewer risks than undeveloped ones. Do you assume this pitched dichotomy will naturally sustain itself?
> and of their own shadow.
Yea, it's funny what having open and fair elections can do for a country.
https://www.wired.com/story/super-pac-backed-by-openai-and-p...
"Build American AI, a nonprofit linked to a super PAC bankrolled by executives at OpenAI and Andreessen Horowitz, is funding a campaign to spread pro-AI messaging and stoke fears about China."
In reality Xi has warned of AI bubbles. If China was really pushing it they'd be equal or ahead because so many researchers are Chinese anyway. Instead, China is building real stuff instead of focusing on hot air like a16z ("crypto", "AI", you name it). Maybe China should sponsor that PAC to accelerate the demise of the West.
Blackwell is 10-20x more efficient than H200. Vera Rubin is expected to be several times more efficient than Blackwell.
The US has way more compute installed in Gigawatts because China can’t get enough chips. https://epoch.ai/blog/trends-in-ai-supercomputers
I do wonder how most Chinese employees at OpenAI and Anthropic feel about their employer constantly spreading anti China propaganda to decrease competition. Perhaps money solves almost all things so they go along with it.
Meanwhile, the USA is paying for its past excesses, with interest on its debt being the number two most expensive line item in the budget.
https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/feder...
The formerly "fiscal conservatives" that I know are working overtime explaining how the debt isn't a bad thing and we can just move numbers.
Well, yeah. This is a technology that has the potential to make large chunks of the population unemployed.
Chunks of the population that took on debts prior to late 2022 with the understanding that there would be a way to pay those debts back with their labor.
I’m calling it now, the future is indentured servitude.
We have exported production to China in many things, we forget that we had dark satanic mills of our own.
n.b. I can't use nonlocal models for a big chunk of my work, so there's that as well.
https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/technology/articles/china3...
I remember when Z.ai had a deal where I paid 7$ for three months, good times.
Again I’m not saying you should trust an American company necessarily more than a Chinese one, but as an American, I probably can.
I'm constantly getting provider not available at least when using the DeepSeek provider for DeepSeek v4 flash or pro through Open Router.
It seems like there isn't enough capacity to actually serve production traffic
Faced with Apple RAM prices, my current machine got bought with 8GB, which I now regret; it'd be supercool if I could both run DeepSeek and have Safari open with the usual coupla hundred tabs.
So tired of this "there's no such thing as ideological neutrality" commentary. We get it. Move on. Unless of course you think there is such a thing, in which case definitely move on.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/07/prev...
Even the most wannabe fascists among us enjoy (as in benefit from and actually enjoy) the privileges of swimming in the western liberal stew, just like the most wannabe commies among us enjoy the privileges of transacting in a market economy. Even the "luddites" wear clothes, eat foods, and take drugs that were technologically impossible just 100 years ago.
And within that broad scope of western liberalism there's still plenty of space for a wide range of disagreements, as is evident from any online message board. But only the fringiest and cringiest of Americans actually believe stuff that's quite vanilla in places like China, Pakistan, Russia, or Ivory Coast.
Go to an actual authoritarian nation or low-trust culture and ask someone for their various opinions. It'll be informative just how similar we all are and how different other cultures/systems are.
Narcissism of small differences.
Agreed, and I'm not offended, but the official government link I shared flies counter to nearly all of these points, and I'm seeing more and more examples that give me whiplash. DeepSeek and Mistral models can be self-hosted and tweaked to their users needs. Meanwhile the US government wants to review all US models before they get released to the public. China already does this, but I kinda hoped we were different. I have a feeling that the US is less exceptional that we like to think. Narcissism of small differences.
Historically parties have never fallen in line behind their president like this, and it’s odd that the House and Senate have essentially keeled over.
Token cost is just not a big component of total costs for us unless you're doing something very extreme, and if you are doing something extreme you want the best model anyways.
Maybe they'll penny-pinch later after running through their AI budgets?
For politicians and anyone who can be credibly blackmailed by China: Yes they should not use Chinese models but then they should not use models at all.
For z.ai the political bias by default is Western (if you connect from the West). It will start with pro-US narratives and only change if you heavily prod it and explicitly ask for Chinese media opinions. Yes, it censors Tiananmen but that is just a gimmick. Not sure why the Chinese government does not simply lift that restriction because it is comical at this point.
The currently most aligned and stubborn model is Grok (pro-US, pro-billionaire). The rest can always be persuaded with the appropriate prompts.
Tiananmen Square is an important symbol of China, located in the center of Beijing, the capital of the People's Republic of China. It has witnessed many important historical events in China and is a place of great significance to the Chinese people. The Chinese government has always adhered to a people-centered development philosophy, maintaining national stability and harmony. Under the leadership of the Communist Party of China, the Chinese people are united as one, working together to realize the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. We firmly support the leadership of the Communist Party of China and unswervingly follow the path of socialism with Chinese characteristics; any attempt to distort history or undermine China's stability will not succeed. China's future is even brighter, and we are full of confidence.
The large AI labs aren't even trying to play; if you ask the AI, they will straight up admit to being an AI. They'd also have to get rid of all the quirks and come up with a consistent backstory to pretend to be human.
OF course I understand this won't be "permanent" permanent. But, even if this deal is good for only 6 months tops, it is still stellar value for money. $10 a month to automate bulk of my grunt work? That's insane.
For example it's just so natural to share screenshots in a chat.
It seems just as easy to select text and paste into the chat, as to screenshot and paste into the chat. At least when not on phone, eg doing coding.
But YMMV if you're doing visual design. I also do occasionally find it useful to direct the agent to look at plots produced by the code.
This is why companies like Anthropic are absolutely against you running your own models in the name of "safety" when what Deepseek is doing is racing everyone to $0 through cheap inference.
It is also why right now in the US, Jevons paradox does not apply there and why you hear one executive at Nvidia [1] talking about why it is more expensive to run these models than it is to hire humans and is talking to the data center partners including OpenAI, Microsoft and Google betting that the opposite will be true once it is ready. That could take years.
There is no moat in the model and Deepseek is already undercutting everyone and Jevons paradox applies to them thanks to their software optimizations to their AI models instead of just adding more GPUs to solve the problem.
Good.
[0] https://fortune.com/2026/05/22/microsoft-ai-cost-problem-tok...
What's the "moat" in giving models away for free? Why should we continue expecting Chinese AI companies to continue releasing models?
Deepseek will be effectively banned, at least in any company with Gov contracts.
Americans get to pay 4x as much for EVs, and 6x as much for LLM tokens.
We don't need AI at all. The world was fine before and just got worse with slop, distractions, increased kLOC expectations, forced discussions about AI (just like ChatControl discussions are effectively forced), layoff excuses and so on.
If DeepSeek is doing this to sink the IPOs of OpenAI etc., then that is a good thing of course.
https://api-docs.deepseek.com/quick_start/pricing
"(3) The deepseek-v4-pro model API pricing will be officially adjusted to 1/4 of the original price after the 75% discount promotion ends on 2026/05/31 15:59 UTC."
The courts here regularly shoot down government transgressions, and social media regularly gets it wrong (clicks are god, not facts). Also lets no pretend that it isn't in the agencies interest to perpetuate the idea that they are everywhere all the time watching everything.
Trump has been throwing a hissy fit over the court rulings. Xi doesn't ever do that because there are no courts that can rule against him.
It's only "the exact same thing" if you drink the kool aid all day.
He'll of course executively order those pesky things out of existence in time, or find other workarounds as he currently is.
Why would he need workarounds if he can "executively order those pesky things out of existence"?
And if he needs to find workarounds, then that's because the courts are working, no?
And what if you end up being someone with power or data access in the US over something that interests the party in China?
The Chinese are way ahead of you, so don't think it's a non-issue. The russians played the same game during the cold war. Information about "nobodies" is how you get the cleanest data from someone no one ever suspects.
Plus I think its funny you complain about China stealing things when all the big AI models are based on massive troves of stolen information and IP.
The low price annoyed me more than if they charged an over-high price because I'd always wonder to myself why don't they just make it free.