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by saubeidl149 days ago |
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upvoteby alephnerd149 days ago|
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When France eventually defaults because of the untenable fiscal situation, no amount of protests will move the IMF or ECB.

Ask Greece.

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upvoteby disgruntledphd2149 days ago|
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> When France eventually defaults because of the untenable fiscal situation, no amount of protests will move the IMF or ECB.

Protests won't work, but if they elect a government that wants to resist, then that government would have political power to force changes at the EU level, as they have a much larger vote bloc than Greece.

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upvoteby alephnerd149 days ago|
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> then that government would have political power to force changes at the EU level

The ECB - like most central banks - is given completely autonomy from decisionmakers in the EU and EC. France's politician weight in the EU has little bearing on what the ECB or the IMF decides if France defaults.

In 2006-07, Italy and Spain were similarly sized economies to France, but when they defaulted due to the Eurozone crisis, their entire autonomy on budgetary decisions was stripped despite also being large and (then) politically powerful nations within the EU.

France needs to rightsize it's social benefits to be comparable to it's EU peers like Germany or Netherlands ASAP or they will be forced to with no say during a default.

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upvoteby saubeidl149 days ago|
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Then they better tax the rich and corpos.
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upvoteby alephnerd149 days ago|
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They already have a 45% income tax above €177k, a 30% capital gains tax, a 36.2% real estate gains tax, and a corporate tax rate of 25% - much higher than their peers in the rest of the EU.

The reality is France can't afford the status quo (in reality, only the expansion from 2005-25 was prolifigate) much longer.

Under IMF or ECB receivership, taxes would rise AND social services would be cut. By cutting stuff today, they can at least minimize the pain from cuts.

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