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Electricity prices are set by the French government not the wholesale cost or cost of production. Which is why EDF - the operator of the French nuclear fleet - regularly posts massive losses. Like the €18 billion loss in 2023.

https://www.lemonde.fr/en/france/article/2023/02/17/france-s...

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It should be noted that most of EDF's massive losses are due to the ARENH.

The European Union insists that EDF must sell energy at very discounted prices, so that third-party "providers" can make an entry on the energy market. The idea was that they would eventually sell their own energy supply, but most just pocketed the difference between the dirt-cheap energy & what they charged customers, then ran away the moment there was any hint of change on the horizon.

Or, to put it in simpler, blunter terms: in the name of "competition", EDF was forced to heavily subsidize companies that turned out to be nothing more than rent-seekers that only sought to, effectively, grab free subsidy money.

Here are some articles about it:

2022: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/10/edf-sues-fr... 2023: https://www.ft.com/content/e2fc3abf-4803-4561-8ef2-0c77fd2d0... 2024: https://www.bruegel.org/policy-brief/europes-under-radar-ind...

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So that's an European thing? huh. We have this in Romania - a couple years back when the war in Ukraine started just as the green deal took effect, the gov started spending like crazy on subsidizing energy. But they did it in a convoluted way with a layer of intermediaries that basically were allowed to invoice the state for price differences from arbitrary price levels. Almost "I'd like to sell at twice the price but you're not letting me, so gimme the difference" - if not exactly that.

I'm not sure if I'm feeling better or worse that it's a EU invention. Either way, it's hellof a corrupt practice.

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No it's a neoliberal thing. Rather than the government doing the thing. They hand out massive subsides and hope it gets done.
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I skimmed your posts but they don't blame EU rules. Can you point to EU regulation which caused this?

ARENH looks like a mechanism by which France wanted to entice competition in end customer sales (and distribution?) of electricity.

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The ARENH program originated with EU liberalization efforts.

https://fsr.eui.eu/regulated-access-to-incumbent-nuclear-ele...

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I read your link and I don't see why you say originated. This is a French law. My understanding is that EDF wanted to take a stake in a German energy producer and to approve such a takeover the EU as the market authority required some type of market liberalization of the French energy market.

France chose to use the mechanism of ARENH. This isn't an EU thing.

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It's a French law to comply with EU requirements.

That's usually how that works. The EU makes rules and national parliaments create local laws to comply.

Of course they could have chosen another way to comply, for example breaking up EDF. But they didn't want to do that, probably for good reasons.

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2022, not 2023. That was due to one time effect of corrosion repairs.

For 2023 and 2024 EDF was profitable, with net income of those two years exceeding that 2022 loss.

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And I’m generally a nuclear proponent but one of the worst investments the French utility made was investing in the UKs reactor debacle at Hinkley C.
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Per wiki, cost midrange is now 45 BEUR. That's ~14 MEUR/MW capacity (v. solar @ ~1MEUR/MW).

Ouch!

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To make matters worse gas peaker plants cost approximately €1mln/MW as well, so at the cost of that plant you could have massively overprovisioned solar, backup gas plants and plenty of money for fuel to spare which you wouldn't be spending immediately, so it could be invested instead.
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Yes, though gas plant install prices are 2-3MEUR/MW these days due to demand/supply.
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Pure disinformation.

EDF is generally highly profitable while at the same time delivering cheap, reliable power. 2023 was the one exception, due to the energy crisis and its interaction with the ARENH program that forces EDF to sell power from nuclear at a fixed low price (usually way below market).

Even if it needs that power itself.

So in 2022, it still had to sell this power at 4 cent/kWh, and then had to buy that same power back from the market at up to €1/kWh.

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That has no bearing on the truth of what I wrote.
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California has been an oil state from the beginning. To this day there is urban oil extraction over various parts of LA:

https://www.pbssocal.org/news-community/l-a-s-long-troubled-...

It is only very recently that California started trying to decarbonize.

When France did their amazing nuclear build, it was for energy independence, not for decarbonization purposes. It was a very forward thinking move, even if it wasn't as cheap initially imagined and ended up being stopped before fully completed. It was a national security project.

However nuclear is cheap when the high upfront capital costs have been paid off, and it's down to just the operating expenses. Building it is oppressively expensive, however, especially as labor costs have risen in the many decades since the 1970s while.

As France's nuclear fleet ages out and needs to be replaced, it seems unlikely that they will be able to pull off a build of a second fleet. Their efforts at prototyping the next design, the EPR, have been fairly disastrous, with builds at Flamanville and in Finland going very poorly.

I suspect that Germany & California's current route to decarbonization through renewables will be followed by France in the coming decades.

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I will counter this. I think theres going to be a significant work to push down the costs of re-powering the aging nuclear fleet.

Renewables will continue to be a force and work around the edges. Too much on the line to shut down nuclear for France. It will get subsidized and it provides energy independence. Potentially but not certain future where other people are also purchasing nuclear assets which pushes down maintenance / manufacturing costs. Risk is that China deploys globally and is the operator. France isn't known for high quality - reasonably costed items - fast time line products.

As well - unspoken part of renewable is in case of a security incident in Europe (see Russia) - nuclear is much more stable work load then solar (could easily scatter bomb solar assets). I know that sounds unintuitive given peoples concern about Nuclear - but there is a such a common good to protect nuclear assets due to fallout where solar assets are localized.

Germany de-carbonization path (shutting down their nuclear plants) was a massive mistake and have seriously hindered their economic long run competitiveness. Its been a black eye for them.

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> Too much on the line to shut down nuclear for France. It will get subsidized and it provides energy independence.

If the goal is energy independence, renewables will provide that more cheaply. If the goals are the other side effects of nuclear power: isotopes, national pride (Curie!), workforce augmentation for nuclear submarines and nuclear weapons, then these goals also require far fewer reactors than enough to power the entire country.

I do not doubt that there may be some level of nuclear power in the future. But I would take a long bet that in 2050, France is closer to 0% nuclear power than it is to the current level. (That phrasing is confusing, but I think the fraction of nuclear power will be less than half its current amount)

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> But I would take a long bet that in 2050, France is closer to 0% nuclear power than it is to the current level.

Maybe, but I think the corollary goal is to have nuclear power be a bigger part of the remaining non-renewables. So if (exaggerating grossly) it's 90% renewable, 9% nuclear, and 1% other, that's arguably still better than the current state.

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>If the goal is energy independence, renewables will provide that more cheaply

The only cheap renewable infrastructure comes from an enemy country and PV solar panels start degrading the moment you install them.

If you think "energy independence" means "be completely and utterly dependent on Chinese manufacturing" then sure, solar and wind offer a quick path to that.

But that's not what the term means, it means "don't need to depend on any other country to keep the lights on". And for Western countries nuclear is really the only option there, whether you like it or not.

If you think nuclear is too expensive, just wait until you see the bill for the the continual refusal to develop indigenous electric capability the minute things start going sideways.

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> The only cheap renewable infrastructure comes from an enemy country and PV solar panels start degrading the moment you install them.

This is false on both counts. The US is (was?) making panels that were only about $0.18/W more expensive than the cheapest panels. India is also standing up quite a bit of manufacturing. France could also make their own panels, Germany had some experience with that too...

Also, panels last 30 years, there's no continuous fueling like there is with fossil fuels and nuclear.

> If you think "energy independence" means "be completely and utterly dependent on Chinese manufacturing" then sure, solar and wind offer a quick path to that.

The idea that using solar somehow makes us in any way dependent on China is so ludicrous that I'm amazed you type it out! Please try to justify that in any way. More nuclear in the US would make us more dependent on Russia than a 100% solar electricity system could ever make us dependent on China.

> If you think nuclear is too expensive, just wait until you see the bill for the the continual refusal to develop indigenous electric capability the minute things start going sideways.

First, actually look at the numbers. Nuclear is more expensive. Second, look at where the US is getting its nuclear fuel as late as 2024, Russia, accounting for a large part of our trade with a country that we're not supposed to be trading with at all:

https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/europe-middle-east/russia...

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=64444

And Russia is far more hostile to the US on all fronts that China is.

We have solar panel manufacturing capacity in the US, we can build it on our own for cheap enough to replace all our dependence on global fossil fuel markets and their volatility, and yet people are for some reason fabricating complete fantasies to say that solar and wind are somehow not the most independent of all power generation forms.

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> I think theres going to be a significant work to push down the costs of re-powering the aging nuclear fleet.

The EPR2 costs just keeps spiraling. They haven't even started building yet or been able to agree on how to finance the subsidies.

This is the same France that less than a month ago had another government collapse due to being underwater in debt with a spending problem and being unable to agree on how to fix it.

A massive handout to the nuclear industry sounds like just the right plan!

It is also funny that you mention Russia. You do know that the EU despite 19 sanction packages haven't been able to agree on sanctions for the Russian nuclear industry. We still are too reliant on it.

Germany was able to quickly phase out Russian fossil gas, while france keeps being EUs no. 1 importer of Russian LNG.

But I do love blaming everything on Germany. So much easier.

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I'm sure they also did it for the nuclear weapons program.

My own country never wanted nukes and they discovered large deposits of natural gas so that was it. After all nuclear energy was never as cheap as they envisioned in the 1950s.

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Quebec has them both beat. Hydro rules!

https://app.electricitymaps.com/map/zone/CA-QC/5y/yearly

(To be transparent, there's controversy around calling hydroelectric renewable.)

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What strikes me is the fact that nuclear power has received an incredible amount of backslash after the Chernobyl incident (a few thousands deaths) and the Fukushima incident (one disputed death), but hydroelectric power is considered a "good" source of energy despite a few incredibly deadly incidents:

- Banquiao (China, 1975): between 26.000 and 240.000 [1]

- Derna (Lybia, 2023): between 6000 and 20.000 deaths [2]

- Machchu (India, 1979): 5000 deaths [3]

- Vajont (Italy, 1963): 2000 deaths [4]

- Möhne dam (Germany, 1943): 1500 deaths [5]

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1975_Banqiao_Dam_failure

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Derna_dam_collapse

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Morvi_dam_failure

[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vajont_Dam

[5] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M%C3%B6hne_Reservoir

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I think this line of thinking comes from a westernized world where all water is controlled.

Many dams have been built around the world not for power generation, but to control flooding. The power generation is a secondary concern.

In aggregate dams have saved far more lives, by managing flood waters.

The great thing in 2025 is that we don’t need either the dam or nuclear risk for our electricity needs.

Just build renewables and storage and the risk for the general public is as close to zero as we can get. The only people involved in accidents are those that chose to work in the industry installing and maintaining the gear.

We should of course continue to focus on work place safety but for the general public the risk of a life changing evacuation, radiation exposure or flood from dam failure does not exist.

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As you say, dams are a net positive, and while failures do happen, these days we tend to be wiser about where we put PHES in particular.

I guess I’m surprised it isn’t more of an option for California - the U.K. uses Snowdonia as a giant battery, and afaik there’s been one failure of a dam that wiped half of trefriw off the map a century ago - which wasn’t hard as it’s a speck of a place. Since then the lakes have pretty reliably and safely provided somewhere to stick excess energy, and now are largely pumped by the offshore wind arrays nearby.

California has big mountains, but I’m not sure if the geology or terrain is right for PHES.

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And the environmental impact up and downstream (both for failure cases and regular operation).
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In Quebec, most of the dams are in the middle of nowhere, but your point still stands.

There are costs/risks for most forms of power. If you're in an environment where wind and solar can make economical sense, go for it. For reliable base loads, I still think order of preference should be:

- geothermal (very rare and hard to do at scale, though) - hydro

- nuclear

- natural gas

- oil/diesel (at very small, localized levels eg remote villages)

- burning live babies and cute animals

- coal

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Did you really just attribute the deaths from a bombing raid on a dam during WW2 to a hydropower incident?
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If a nuclear reactor was bombed during the war, would the resulting deaths be counted as a nuclear disaster and used as argument against it, or just another war crime? Depends who you ask I'd say.
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Is Fukushima generally attributed to the Tsunami or to nuclear power?
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Does that really matter? The cleanup costs are still socialized.

It is time we move on from the fossil tradition of socialized losses on private profits [1] and instead let the nuclear industry bear their true insurance cost.

No externalizing of costs like today.

[1]: https://www.imo.org/en/about/conventions/pages/international...

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It does if you complain that a hydropower disaster had a different proximate cause, which the person I replied to did.

The whole intermittent renewables scam is private profits and socialized losses.

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Not sure why you got so worked up?

Then I suppose nuclear power is also a scam given thant 45% of the capacity in Sweden was out last week and we all know how it went for the French during the energy crisis. [1]

The electricity grid is fundamentally running on marginal cost. How will you force everyone with rooftop solar and home batteries to buy horrendously expensive new built nuclear power when they can supply their own electricity?

[1]: http://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/15/business/nuclear-power-fra...

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Who is worked up? You seem to be. Why?

I am just correcting misinformation and disinformation.

And no, you suppose incorrectly.

Intermittent renewables are a scam, because they get to privately reap benefits and socialize their costs, particularly their intermittency.

They can be useful, as long as they have to bear the costs of being intermittent. That means at minimum no feed-in priority and no fixed and/or guaranteed feed-in prices. Ideally, they would be required either (a) provide guaranteed power or (b) only be allowed to feed in after all the reliable plants.

Well, (b) would imply (a), so let's go with that.

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This tells me you don't know how a grid works. You do know that the demand is variable right?

With the same reasoning nuclear power is a scam because it can't adapt to the grid demand and forces gas peakers to sit in standby. Socializing the losses, to use your words.

In California the grid shifts between ~15 GW at the minimum and 52 GW at the peak.

When studies have looked at the difference in dispatchable power required comparing majorly renewables or nuclear powered grids when meeting true a grid demand the difference is quite small.

It does favor nuclear power but the differences are not significant in the grand scheme of things when factoring in the absolutely stupid cost for new built western nuclear power.

These studies of course did not take into account 45% of the nuclear fleet being offline, they modeled it based on their average ~85% capacity factor.

Or are you suggesting that we should have peaking nuclear plants to match grid demand? So it isn't a scam for the ratepayers?

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The one who doesn't know how the grid works is you.

Some demand is variable. But a lot (usually most) is not. So having reliable base generation is highly valuable and not having that base-load generation ramp up and down is a feature, not a bug.

Intermittent generation is not variable, it is intermittent. Whereas to meet variable demand it would need to be dispatchable. Look it up.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dispatchable_generation

Intermittent renewables are not dispatchable. Not even a bit.

The US nuclear fleet's CF has hovered over 90%. France's is only in the high 70s or low 80s because they do extensive load following (the stuff you say nuclear can't do...they've only been doing it for four decades or so).

France took its fleet offline in the summer of 2022, because that is where demand is lowest and generation from intermittent renewables is highest, for example Germany typically has to give away lots of electricity (or even pay consumers to get rid of it) because of their guaranteed feed-in.

In the end, France had to import only 4% of its electricity even in 2022, and most of that was in the summer, again where electricity prices are lowest because of high generation and low demand. And during all the other years it tends to be largest exporter of electricity in Europe if not the world.

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Love it. Just pretend that you can separate the grid into a ”baseload” portion and ”everything” else.

Like I said, on a yearly basis the Californian grid goes from 15GW to 50 GW.

That your nuclear grid will collapse when a cold spell hits leading to people freezing to death is fine.

Thats a socialized loss! Someone else will need to solve it!

I love that you completely ignored the Swedish example from last week.

And then with a sleight of hand ignored that the French nuclear issues persisted throughout the entire energy crisis winter.

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LOL.

Like France's grid has collapsed every year for the last 40 years.

And of course California's grid is well known for its stability. Or was that brownouts, rolling blackouts and high prices? Well, one of the two.

Nice chatting with you. Well, amusing at least.

Sweden just approved new nuclear construction, after rescinding a nuclear exit.

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So it is apparently fine to balance a nuclear grid with fossil fuels????

Just pretend that the fossil fuels doesn’t exist by exporting the nuclear electricity and have someone else build them and balance both grids!

What do you think would happen if you tried sticking two French grids with an over supply of nuclear powered electricity when no one wants the electricity next to each other?

You mean the brownouts storage and renewables have now completely fixed?

Yeah, way faster than handouts to new built nuclear power and waiting until the 2040s for the solution!

> Sweden just approved new nuclear construction, after rescinding a nuclear exit.

Yes. The current government has spent soon four years pushing paperwork around. They want nuclear power without having to accept the costs.

They seem to not want to have the costs associated with new built nuclear power subsidies on their political records for their entire careers.

I bet they will push through a monstrous handout package the final weeks before the election next September and then spend years crying about it being cut.

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I was going to reply, but kakacik already said what I wanted.
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I am a bit biased, as an engineer who works exclusively in hydro powerplants, but i think they're awesome too. With that said, it's becoming more apparent that in addition to the biosphere issues they cause, they also cause a pretty significant amount of methane to be released. https://www.hydropower.org/blog/new-study-sheds-light-on-res...

It would put me out of a job but I'd still rather see a surge in nuke generation and solar with storage, at least until we get fusion figured out.

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    > I'd still rather see a surge in nuke generation and solar with storage
How about wind?
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Wind is good too!
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[flagged]
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The linked article doesn't put these emissions in relation to anything. It is hard to imagine it to be a relevant amount of emissions, right?
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Hydro does rule. Top 8 power stations are hydro right now. And the top power station has been a hydro for over a hundred years now. Very cool! Three Gorges has capacity of 22.5 GW.
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I really hope nothing bad happens at the three gorges dam. There's nearly half a billion people that would have to be evacuated, and tens of millions who likely wouldn't be able to evacuate in time due to proximity.

I'd rather live near a modern nuclear plant myself.

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Dutch people live under sea level but everyone trusts in the engineering.
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If we are comparing the progress made over time, my vote goes to Brazil, which holds a 50-year advantage in its green energy focus.

https://www.geni.org/globalenergy/library/energy-issues/braz...

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These maps are such a cool resource, thanks for sharing!

"The future is already here – it's just not evenly distributed." - William Gibson

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Even the poster boy for nuclear is reducing nuclear output as its fleet ages and filling that gap with renewables (reducing its electricity emissions from 2005 when their nuclear peaked too).

So it apparently doesn't matter what your existing grid is, coal, gas, nuclear, hydro, of whatever mix, the thing you should be building now is mostly solar, wind and (not quite caught on globally but just about to make a very big splash) batteries.

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The batteries mentioned in the article have only a few hours of capacity, and are designed to smooth the peak usage intraday. I think many people are confused and seem to think batteries are a viable way to address the volatility of wind, where you may deal with weeks with no/low wind, or solar, which in countries with cold winters is of little help.

I have yet to see a cheap scalable alternative to carbon to deal with that volatility. Hydro perhaps in a handful of smaller, mountainous countries (and if you are not too regarding of the environmental damages). Right now the UK is using LNG to compensate wind.

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Long-form storage is inherently unprofitable - a battery that's used daily will make 365x the sales of a battery that's used only once a year.

So inevitably, the first batteries will always prioritize daily arbitrage, and only once that market is capped out will some battery projects target weekly/monthly/yearly arbitrage.

In countries with cold winters, the obvious solution is heat-energy storage systems, which don't output electricity but instead store and output heat directly; they're basically just a big pile of sand/stones/bricks wrapped in a ton of insulation. Thanks to the cube-square law, they scale up unbelievably well and can easily store months worth of heat.

Due to that scale they don't make much sense without district heating, but energy storage is a numbers-game and lots of cold places already have district heating that could be quite easily retrofitted.

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You don't need batteries with longer capacity in terms of power:energy ratio, you simply need more batteries.

Getting to France's level of nuclear decarbonization with batteries is cheap and easy with current prices. Using existing thermal plants for a few weeks a year and renewables for the rest is quite similar overall to France's mix.

What's challenging is the final 10%, 5%, and 1%. But it will take 15-20 years of deployment of our current cheap renewables+storage technology before we need to solve those final percents. In that time, technology will have advanced tremendously and we don't know what the cheapest solution will be, just that it will be cheaper than current tech. Plus it would take much longer than 15 years to even build nuclear in any significant quantity! France said a few years ago that they would be building handful of new reactors but I still have not seen progress!

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The UK uses far more gas to heat homes than to generate electricity, and uses some for industrial purposes so it seems weird to attribute LNG use to wind, the technology that more than any other has reduced gas usage in the UK.
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Replying to myself because a new report came out saying the UK saved a net 104 Billion over a decade by replacing gas with wind.

The major factor was reducing the use of gas which lowers gas prices. As a result the main beneficiaries weren't electricity users but gas users paying lower prices and saving 133 Billion.

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The increase in use of wind, being intermittent and non-dispatchable means there has to be 1-for-1 back up wind generation. That is gas.

We also have periods in the winter (so solar of little to no use), where we can have a week or two of no wind.

As the gas generators are not run constantly, they're more expensive than if they were. There are various (at least 3) UK "gridwatch" sites available, offering real time and historical generation mix. Maybe have a look.

From memory, so probably flawed, we still tend to depend upon nuclear and gas for around 40 - 50 % of our generation (nuke being low - say between 5 and 10).

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Since year 2000 wind has gone from 0 to 30% of UK electricity generation

Coal has gone from 32% to 0.

Gas has gone from 40% to 30%

How do you square these numbers with wind being responsible for the amount of gas burned?

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You are not going to observe that in annual averages. As mentioned in my other comment, you can observe that very clearly in the energy production charts: https://gridwatch.co.uk/
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Let's boil this right down:

A new wind turbine is built and plugged into the grid. Does this cause more gas to be burned or less?

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That's not what dfawcus is saying, he is talking about installed capacity, not consumption. If you build 1GW of wind, you need to also build 1GW of gas to make up for when there is no wind (and as you can tell from gridwatch, it's a common occurence). Otherwise blackouts.

[edit] and we might be talking at cross purpose here. I think most of the new capacity built now is to expand the production, rather than to reduce other forms of productions (in which case you might just keep around existing gas capacity if it was there, to your point).

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you can actually see it live here: https://gridwatch.co.uk/

It illustrates both the volatility of wind (which regularly goes to zero for at least a week), and how it is currently pretty much 100% offset with gas.

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Normally this would be handled by a wider synchronized network. The EU has a continent wide synchronized network and the UK isn’t part of it.

There are also other ways to store energy. For polar regions sand batteries are capable of storing heat for months. High grade heat to the point they can siphon off that heat for power generation.

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The interconnectors between UK and the continent are HVDC.

As such they are essentially massive switching-mode PSUs, and there is no possibility of having a synchronised connection, as the AC has to be synthesised, following the local spinning iron.

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But also europe isn't that large. When there is no wind in the UK, there is no wind in France or Italy. Which means not only do they not provide diversification, they will import at the same time.
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France?

France is increasing its nuclear output. And planning to build new plants. (Expanding nuclear generation was prohibited by law up until March of 2023).

The added renewables help to make the nuclear plants more efficient and profitable, by taking up a good amount of the variable demand.

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France doesn't have any new reactors under construction. Its annual nuclear generation peaked in 2005:

    ~/git/iaea-pris % sqlite3 pris_data.db
    sqlite> select year, sum(electricity_supplied_gwh) from reactor_statistics, reactor_operating_history where reactor_statistics.reactor_id=reactor_operating_history.reactor_id and country_code='FR' and year > '1999' group by year;

    year  sum(electricity_supplied_gwh)
    ----  -----------------------------
    2000  395392.3                     
    2001  401256.49                    
    2002  415110.33                    
    2003  421028.62                    
    2004  428040.69                    
    2005  431179.56                    
    2006  429819.63                    
    2007  420129.49                    
    2008  419800.32                    
    2009  391752.97                    
    2010  410086.42                    
    2011  423509.48                    
    2012  407437.88                    
    2013  405898.51                    
    2014  418001.4                     
    2015  419035.02                    
    2016  386452.88                    
    2017  381846.02                    
    2018  395908.34                    
    2019  382402.75                    
    2020  338735.78                    
    2021  363394.15                    
    2022  282093.23                    
    2023  323773.23                    
    2024  364390.78
France is planning new EPR2 reactors, but no construction is expected to start before 2027 and none would run before the 2030s. I put little trust in announcements of future plans without actual construction work, whether the plans are for nuclear reactors, wind farms, data centers, or any other major investment.
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They don’t even plan enough replacements to keep generation constant as aging plants are decommissioned
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Evidence?
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Look at the number of planned reactors and the number of reactors likely reaching EOL. France plans to build fewer than fifteen new plants (delivery date tbd). If they started building all of them today half of their fleet would be fifty years old by the time construction was done.
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Once again: source? Mycle Schneider by any chance?

Anyway: those numbers are not "reactors likely reaching EOL". Those are reactors reaching the end of their original operating license.

These two things are not the same. At all.

Initial operating licenses were intentionally relatively short, because at the time there was no experience with the longevity of reactors. So you conservatively license towards the short end.

Now that we have that experience, reactor operating licenses are getting extended. A lot. The first reactors in the US have had their licenses extended to 80 years, and the current consensus appears to be that 100 won't be a problem.

So France won't be running low on nuclear power anytime soon. Unless you're Mycle Schneider and/or confuse "current operating license expiry" with "EOL".

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France does not have any new reactors currently under construction because until March 2023, expansion of nuclear generating capacity was forbidden by law.

So even to build the one Flamanville 3 reactor, they had to shut down two older reactors in Fessenheim in order to not have an illegal increase in capacity.

Now that the law has been rescinded, they are planning 6 simplified EPR2 reactors, taking lessons from the fairly catastrophic EPR project FV3.

(Of course, even that catastrophic reactor will be more profitable than any intermittent renewable projects in, for example, Germany, but hey, the standards for what counts as "success" and what as "failure" are different for nuclear and for renewables).

France also currently does not need to urgently expand their nuclear fleet, so the schedule for the EPR2s matches those needs and the need to fully account for the problems with FV3. Instead, they are increasing the production of their existing fleet, both by operational upgrades and also by increasing use of intermittent renewables to cover variations in demand, allowing the nuclear fleet to run closer to fully rated capacity instead of having to load-follow.

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Renewables are non dispatchable and thus have a hard time picking up variable demand. They’re very good at providing free energy on sunny or windy days and are increasingly forcing nuclear plants to reduce output during those times, directly cutting into nuclear profits.
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The French are wholly unable to build new nuclear power.

Flamanville 3 is 7x over budget and 12 years late on a 5 year construction program.

The EPR2 program is in absolute shambles.

Currently they can’t even agree on how to fund the absolutely insanely bonkers subsidies.

Now targeting investment decision in H2 2026. And the French government just fell and was reformed because they are underwater in debt and have a spending problem which they can’t agree on how to fix.

A massive handout to the dead end nuclear industry sounds like the perfect solution!

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FV3 was a shambles.

For a number of fairly well-understood reasons:

1. It's a FOAK design.

2. France stopped building reactors, so expertise was sparse

3. The EPR is too complex, partly because it was designed for German safety standards, which in turn were specifically designed to make nuclear reactors economically unviable (they did not succeed with this). Those regulations are also prescriptive instead of requirements-based, so they don't allow simpler+safer passive cooling like the AP-1000s. It's silliness layered on top of silliness.

4. It was built as a single unit, instead of a series of overlapping builds of the same reactor design. This was because until March 2023, expanding French nuclear capacity was forbidden by law. So they couldn't legally build in a way that is efficient and effective.

The EPR2 project addresses this in a number of ways:

1. The EPR2 is dramatically simplified relative to the EPR.

2. The law was rescinded in March 2023, so they will be building six of them initially, in batches of 2, with overlap between all the units. 8 more are planned for later.

3. They are making much more realistic assumptions at the start

I am not sure how you can claim that the EPR2 program is "a shambles" when they haven't begun building in earnest yet and are explicitly addressing most if not all the issues with FV3. Seems a tad premature.

Of course nuclear is one of the things that is financing the French state and industry, with EDF returning massive profits to its owner (the state) and the ARENH program subsidizing industry.

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Which is of course why all recent western proejcts have equal outcomes to FV3.

And the ones recently started, like the Darlington SMR also have near equal costs before they have even started building.

I love the blind belief. Just another aboslutely bonkers handout of tax money and it will be solved!

Which is why the EPR2 project is getting more delayed and more costly by every update released.

Existing nuclear power might be cost neutral. The problem is building new.

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> Which is of course why all recent western proejcts have equal outcomes to FV3.

Yes, because we stopped building. Once we start building again, those problems go away by themselves.

And no, the handout of tax money you complain about is to intermittent renewables, not to nuclear. Exactly the reverse of your claims. Just look at the EDF financial reports. Nuclear produces profits that are returned to their owner, despite having to finance ARENH.

Oh, of course EDF does receive state subsidies. For their intermittent renewables projects. Ba-da-dumm-tss.

Same in Germany: renewables are subsidized in production with around €20 billion per year just for the EEG, never mind the feed-in priority they get that lets them shunt the massive problems of their intermittency onto the other suppliers. That's probably worth more. Oh, and the preferential loan conditions and reduced regulatory burden etc.

Nuclear power in Germany never got a single cent for production. And had to account for all the sorts of costs others get to externalize, such as waste.

So once again: exactly the opposite of your claims.

The problem is not building new. The problem is building the first new.

For evidence of this, just look to China: they also built FOAK AP-1000 (Vogtle) and EPR (FV3, HPC).

And lo-and-behold: their FOAK versions of these also took around 10 years to build, whereas China typically builds in 5, so twice as long. In absolute terms they were a little faster, because they actually have industrial experience with nuclear (currently building 20+ reactors, lots more planned), the thing that needs to be rebuilt in Europe and the US.

Nowadays, they are building their NOAK AP-1000s in 5 years, for $3.5 bn. They didn't go for more EPR, as the AP-1000 is a better design. The EPR also hasn't won any of the recent tenders for nuclear reactors, for example in Poland (AP-1000) and the Czech Republic (South Korean APR-1400)

So to repeat: the problems with FOAK builds are well-known, as are the ones with building up nuclear expertise in a country. These go away by themselves once you build a number plants, preferable of the same design. The problems with the EPR design go away once you stop building EPRs.

Now these are actual facts.

Whereas all you've come up with is empty slogans and emotional fantasies.

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How many trillions in handouts to the nuclear industry to maybe get only extremely expensive electricity?

Then trying to justify it with paid off nuclear plants.

So it will be profitable sometime in 2060? Until then we should just persist with horrifyingly expensive electricity as they get paid off?

That sounds like a lunatic talking.

There’s no feed in priority. Renewables just bid zero which is their marginal cost. Nuclear power bids negative until prices are so low for so long that they withdraw from the grid.

You can try to force nuclear costs on the consumers but that will only lead to an explosion of rooftop solar and home storage.

I also love how everything becomes ”FOAK” when you need to justify the boondoggles.

Apparently reactor 5 and 6 of the EPR line is now ”First of a Kind”. That does not seem very logical to me.

You know that nuclear power as a share of the Chinese grid is backsliding? They also keep pushing their targets further into the future and lowering them.

And South Korea then withdrew from all other bids in Europe after the settlement with Westinghouse.

The Polish AP-1000 lands somewhere around €180/MWh when considering all costs and subsidies.

Then you blather on about FOAK while making it blindingly obvious that you are in over your head. You do know that we have research on it rather than you making up ”facts”?

> If you look at the data specifically you're going to find learning but for that there's a several requirements:

> - It has to be the same site

> - It has to be the same constructor

> - It has to be at least two years of of gap between one construction to the next

> - It has to be constant labor laws

> - It has to be a constant regulatory regime

> When you add these five you only get like four or five examples in the world.

From a nuclear energy professor at MIT in the Decouple nuclear power industry podcast, giving an overly positive but still sober image regarding the nuclear industry as it exists today.

But that is something a trillion dollars in a handout will fix! Any day now! They'll start paying it back.... never!

Insanity.

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> How many trillions in handouts to the nuclear industry to maybe get only extremely expensive electricity?

You keep posting this talking point, despite the fact that it is patently untrue, and in fact the reverse is true.

Please stop.

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I love these magical new built nuclear reactors that will go down to 1/10th of the cost of all modern western projects.

While of course still being unable to compete on marginal price leading to them being forced out of the market regularly.

Just another trillion in handouts to get there! When will they get paid back? Never!

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This shouldn't be confused for an argument to build new nuclear power in the year 2025 when far cheaper alternatives exist. It is an observation that nuclear works really well if it already exists and the fixed costs have been paid for, and that nuclear was the best choice a few decades ago.
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The only reason nuclear is more expensive than any alternative are absurd regulations, reporting duties, the practice of financing these projects on borrowed money with high interests and that many of the companies running these projects are career parking spots and accelerators for the social circles around politicians and the bureaucratic aristocracy.

Complexity-wise they're about halfway between gas and coal.

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I'm not sure how you are measuring complexity.

The plant and equipment required to maintain a stable nuclear reaction and extract its heat is far more complex than that required to control a coal or natural gas firebox.

This is reflected in the fact that to run 1GW of nuclear generation, on average (in the US) requires about 700 FTE to operate. The average for coal generation is about a third of that number. And the average for a combined cycle gas plant is about 60 FTE.

And nuclear fission produces low-grade heat - around 320°C - compared to coal (around 550°C) or natural gas (over 1300°C). Thus are less thermally efficient and require huge cooling towers and much larger turbines to extract the thermal energy. Which, of course, are more expensive and complex to build and maintain.

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Kind of my fault, I specifically thought only about the powerplant + fuel part.

Of course nuclear is much more complex as a whole, because it comes with at least two, sometimes three different business sections attached by default: Production and sale of rare isotopes, on-site laboratories and research and recycling of spent fuel.

It's hard to beat gas. The small double digit MW plant in my town literally has only one on-site full-time employee. My guess the only reason the FTE hits even 60 (didn't check) is because there are so many small installations.

Coal has a lot of fuel processing on-site just for its own demand, the mostly very sensible environmental regulations add a lot of complexity to processing the flue gasses and this adds A LOT of moving parts.

Nuclear can be built simple enough that people are literally thinking about dropping it down a mile deep hole, barely the width of a US-standard human. On the "hands off" scale it can't beat gas, barely anything but solar, geothermal and nuclear thermal electric can, but it could beat coal and hydro and possibly even wind via scale. Just how often should one have to send a report to some oversight body on the number of functional overhead lights and whether the change in microclimate didn't displace any rare insect species before one can say: "You didn't read the last 20, you're not getting another one."

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> Of course nuclear is much more complex as a whole, because it comes with at least two, sometimes three different business sections attached by default: Production and sale of rare isotopes, on-site laboratories and research and recycling of spent fuel.

That misses my point. Managing fuel and waste is more complex for nuclear. Producing heat using a nuclear reactor is more complex than producing it with coal and gas. And extracting useful energy from the heat is also more complex (given the low-grade heat that reactors provide).

At every step of the way you have more complexity in engineering and operations.

These engineering realities are independent of the regulatory environment or other activities occurring around the plant.

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The only reason? Solar constantly getting cheaper is not also part of the reason? Is there any price that solar could decline you to where you would begin to credit solar's low price as being part of the reason?
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The French are wholly unable to build new nuclear power.

3 is 7x over budget and 12 years late on a 5 year construction program.

The EPR2 program is in absolute shambles.

Currently they can’t even agree on how to fund the absolutely insanely bonkers subsidies.

Now targeting investment decision in H2 2026. And the French government just fell because they are underwater in debt and have a spending problem which they can’t agree on how to fix.

A massive handout to the dead end nuclear industry sounds like the perfect solution!

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Good luck building nuclear in non-generational timescales and at reasonable prices.

The future is solar simply because these electricity catchers from the sky fusion are mass producible goods that you can just keep pumping and pointing it to the sky in matter of days at dirt cheap prices.

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also because it is modular which really works for the Global south, it can be taken to demand centers and demand adjusted to the supply to a small extent (e.g. irrigation pumps)
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> Good luck building nuclear in non-generational timescales and at reasonable prices.

Or we could treat nuclear rationally and stop increasing the price three orders of magnitude past diminishing returns..

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> Or we could treat nuclear rationally and stop increasing the price three orders of magnitude past diminishing returns

Who is we here? Do you have examples of any countries having successfully done what you are proposing?

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'We' could refer to democratic societies that regulate nuclear energy with absurdly stringent standards beyond how we regulate other forms of energy. Just the regulatory cost of approving a new small reactor design exceeds 500 Million Dollars! That's the lifetime earnings of thousands of engineers and bureaucrats.
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$0.5B is a tiny rounding error in the cost of standing up the first GW of a new tech. If SMRs could be built for $10/W, which is overly optimistic, that would be $10B. Much more likely is $30B-$50B for that first GW. And SMRs are not even going to start getting to a halfway competitive cost until at least several GW in. If they can eventually get to $5/W they might have a chance at competing for a fraction of the grid.

All this is to say that if there are high costs imposed by regulation, it's not the regulatory process it's in the cost of building the final design.

However, the "regulations make nuclear expensive" folks never seem to be able to propose the changes that might make nuclear cheaper, or by how much. The only concrete proposals I have heard are from people skeptical that nuclear can ever be cost competitive!

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> Who is we here? Do you have examples of any countries having successfully done what you are proposing?

Does it really matter? There’s always a first country to do anything.

It makes no sense actual exposure to radiation is increasing because of the lack of nuclear plants…

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And still even China is adding as much solar as their total nuclear capacity on a yearly basis.
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> Do you have examples of any countries having successfully done what you are proposing?

France pre 21st century, China, Korea, Poland.

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South Korea had a massive corruption scandal. I guess it takes cheating to deliver?

https://www.technologyreview.com/2019/04/22/136020/how-greed...

China is barely building nuclear power. In terms of their grid mix it is backsliding.

Poland haven’t built any so noconfirmed numbers yet?

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Since when does Poland have a significant nuclear power generation program?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_Poland

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Does anyone have actual numbers on what France’s nuclear fleet cost? I thought it was somewhat shrouded in mystery due to government and national security subsidies.
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> national security subsidies.

The bit they always say quietly is that you need nuclear reactors to provide the material for nuclear weapons.

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Nothing to be proud of. Dangerous ancient reactors owned by an almost bankrupt company about to be nationalized.

https://www.lemonde.fr/en/france/article/2023/02/03/the-long...

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>almost bankrupt company

"Published on February 3, 2023"

Since then, in 2023 and 2024 EDF posted over 10 billion a year profits.

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In 2022 they lost 18bn because they had to repair widespread "stress corrosion cracking". And it was nationalized.
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Incorrect.

It was always a public/nationalized company. It started 100% owned by the government. In the 2000s, around 15% were sold to pension funds, so way over 80% in the hands of the state, which by EU rules (and common sense) makes it a state company.

The floating shares were bought back in order to facilitate the nuclear expansion plans.

The losses in 2022 were largely due to the energy crisis because of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which interacted rather nastily with the French ARENH program that requires EDF to sell 25% of its power output for 4 cents/kWh, no matter what the market rates. And no matter if it needs that power itself.

When the energy crunch hit in 2022, wholesale electricity rates rose up to €1 / kWh. So EDF had to sell its electricity for 4 cents, then buy it back at 25x markup for €1.

Oh, and the government actually increased the ARENH quotas to more than 25%, because it used EDF to subsidize consumer/industry energy prices, something that was done by the states directly in other countries.

The problems with a part of the fleet, largely due to deferred maintenance during COVID, also didn't help.

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if they can run them safely they should. is ASN not trustworthy?

they are doing reviews every 10 year, and as they get older they can increase the frequency of reviews.

also the article mentions no dangers with regards to the reactors.

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