I don't think that long, but yeah, I give it five years.
replyTwo years and 3/4 will be not needed anymore
I don't have all the variables in (financials of openai debt etc) but a few articles mention that they leverage part of their work to {claude,gemini,chatgpt} code agents internally with good results. it's a first step in a singularity like ramp up.
replyPeople think they'll have jobs maintaining AI output but i don't see how maintaining is that harder than creating for a llm able to digest requirements and codebase and iterate until a working source runs.
I don't think either, people forget that agents are also developing.
replyBack then, we put all the source code into AI to create things, then we manually put files into context, now it looks for needed files on their own. I think we can do even better by letting AI create a file and API documentation and only read the file when really needed. And select the API and documentation it needs and I bet there is more possible, including skills and MCP on top.
So, not only LLMs are getting better, but also the software using it.