> I don’t think that’s a reasonable thing to really assign much value to as it’s incredibly unlikely.

In my experience the systems/tools needed to debug production issues are often only used when they’re needed.

Which now means you need health and uptime monitoring on your log server since without that, it might break randomly and no one notices until you need it.

> The hypothetical problems people imagine for on-prem infrastructure get really strange to me

It really comes down to the people and whether you have the expertise on the team. And whether the team can realistically manage the system long term. It’s typically safer to spend more money for the managed service.

(It’s a safer decision, not necessarily better)

100% agree. If I am using a cloud log provider I wouldn't expect them to solve my logging issue(s) as fast as I need, more importantly I have no real way to put more resources on that fix.

More importantly, with a third party service I'd be very surprised if both went down at the same time and it wasn't a further upstream issue like AWS. If its my own logging service and it went down during a prod outage, I likely didn't properly isolate my logging service in the first place.