It's about the role of technologies in evolution, responsibility versus utilitarian take, etc. It should be developed and discussed seriously, but not in a buried sub-thread.

To put it gently, yes it feels different: for people who haven't already saved a lifetime of SWE wages, this is the first credible threat to the sector in which they're employed since the dot com bubble. People need to work to eat.

You cannot compare any open source software, even as a whole, to the impact that LLMs have had on labor and are projected too. However, I might now argue it would have been better to not have so much open source, as its clearly being processed through these plagiarism laundering training regimes.

I don't really think LLMs, robotics and ML in general are going to increase GDP globally, they will instead just replace the inputs that were maintain the status quo (the workers). If they can't successfully replace human labor, it will at minimum greatly reduce its value, which is extremely dangerous.

Jobs grew greatly during the last 30 years of open source development but over the last 16 months we've had 350-400k SWE layoffs in the last 16 months in the USA. Many of these layoffs have been directly correlated to AI enhanced productivity. 25% of recent college graduates are unemployed. Jobs data is super unreliable at the moment, but we also will see large swaths of the lower skilled sectors, customer service for example, see huge layoffs in the coming 24 months.

Despite what C-Suites say about AI giving them more free time for their hobbies or whatever, they've yet to answer how people are going to afford those hobbies. Working as a barista lol? These same mouthpieces will say that llms are going to allow the same amount of engineers to get 10x more done, but they're not reflecting that in their business decisions. They are laying people off in swaths when equities are at all time highs, its abnormal.

I think its more likely the ruling classes will give us something to do by making us so poor that young men will beg to go fight wars. Put us to use on behalf of their conquest for more resources, that certainly did the trick in the 20s, 30s and 40s :/

Corporations and billionaires will get Ti-Nspires we get Ti-83s.

I do not agree that inference will get more affordable in time to prevent harm. It will cause way more problems with the devaluation of labor before it starts to solve those problems, and in that period they will solidify their control over society.

We already see it in how ML is being used on a vast scale to build advanced surveillance infrastructure. Lets not build the advanced calculators for them for free in open source please, they'd like nothing better. I wrote a lot more in the comments above also.

If anyone has time, this is required reading imho: https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/books/97/05/18/r...

I don't know how to prevent people from stopping this without shaming them. I think more shaming might be required, as uncomfortable as that may be. It's a societal wide prisoner's dilemma (well if I don't build it, someone else will), except we this isn't a prisoners dilemma and we can coordinate, sort of.

It would be one thing if GPUs and Tokens were cheap and everyone could take these implementations and out compete the corporations, but that's not the game theoretical terms we're on here. They have the resources, and I promise they are not going to let the average joe be able afford to out compete them. They are the ones that are going to be able to get the most advantage from these tools.. Why give them the extra leverage. It will be used to displace you. The ruling class or those with the resources, have zero intention of letting the tide rise all boats. And if there are any in the ruling class that do have good intentions, they will be rooted out.

We see this evidence all across literature, history, and in their own actions. This year in Telluride Colorado the Ski Patrol Union went on strike over wages. The billionaire owner who lives in California, Chuck Horning, did not want to concede to the Ski Patrolers over a $66k spread out over 3 years, like 22k a year over the contract length. He shutdown the ski resort during the Christmas holidays, and brought the town to its knees. This is just one example, but there are many. It is ideological to these people, its about maintaining their control over the working class. We are at the beginning of a class struggle that Earth has never witnessed before, with way more lives at stake.

I do not think LLMs are going to lead to super intelligence btw, I do believe it will get decent enough to uproot many lives when its used as a weapon against the value of labor and to accelerate concentration of resources into the few(er). We are up against people like Chuck Horner, who'd rather destroy an entire town of workers over 22k a year than concede any power. They have zero interest in building a equitable society, or we wouldn't see this type of behavior. This will 100% get used to replace you, then what will they do with us? They aren't going to just let everyone chill, I promise you that.

I believe the devaluation (and surveillance )of labor because of LLMs, robotics (machine learning in general) is the most pressing issue of our time.

I get the draw to building cool tools with these things, but please don't do it in the open. Let someone else do it, and then we can call them out too. The slower these developments can happen the better.