> Most over-70s are significantly worse than the average driver and some are so dangerous they shouldn't be on the road at all.
reply> You're taking about statistical averages but I'm talking about a significant minority of over-70s who are wildly dangerous.
You sure about that?
Over 70s do have higher rates of accidents per 100m over average, although it is small until you get to 80+.
reply“I'm talking about a significant minority of [under 25 year olds] who are wildly dangerous.” (Edit mine)
replyDon’t you think that statement is also true?
16 year olds get better at driving.
replyThey also get less likely to commit crime, but that’s not how we gauge risk. We don’t generally say “that teenager’s crime risk is going down so they are less risky than that geriatric whose crime risk is fairly constant.” Risk probability is usually a hazard rate integral across an interval.
replyOver a long enough interval, that reduction in risk would be important. So what is the appropriate time interval for these risk assessments?