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If Mexico went to war with America they would rely on asymmetric insurgency tactics. They have no shortage of sympathetic people in America, not just Mexican nationals but native born Americans as well. America hasn't dealt with a genuine domestic insurgency situation before.
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That's exactly what russia thought before invading the Ukraine.
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Not to be pedantic but it’s just Ukraine. It is an independent country.

Russia calls is “the Ukraine” because they think it’s their territory and not an independent nation.

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