It's definitely already happening and should lead to a congressional inquiry if we had a functioning congress: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2gn93292do
replyIsn't the whole idea of prediction markets to let insiders bet on things so that you'll get insider info leaked?
replyMaybe this is fine until it incentivizes easily-achieved but adverse actions that would greatly harm the public.
replyFor a silly example, I would imagine the streaker from this year’s Super Bowl is either (a) a complete idiot, or (b) put a significant amount of money on a “prediction market” of there being a streaker at the Super Bowl - more than enough to cover his ticket, legal, and medical costs.
Yes and no. AIUI there's generally a lot less liquidity available in prediction markets, which limits the profitability.
replyEven if you have perfect clairvoyance, you still need someone to take the other side of the bet.