Better be otherwise it’s a 27+ year wait for breakeven!
reply27 year PE ratio is a value stock at this point
replyPay attention to the outflow of tech investment in the stock market. That money is going to move into OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs. The valuations will be as big you are thinking because the market believes these companies will represent an entire basket of startups.
replyIt Is more likely that people are cashing out very liquid assets (tech stocks) to pay back their loans in Yen as interest rates are rising over there.
replyTech stocks with all the hype are second only to crypto in terms of how easy and fast are to sell (hence BTC dropped and now tech stocks IMHO).
Btw, I was too young to fully remember, but wasn't the year before the dot com crash also full of IPOs?
Apparently the last two times the Super Bowl Ads were dominated by Tech companies was 2000 for dotCom and 2022 for Crypto.
replyThat's a really interesting tidbit. Thanks for sharing.
replyAnd thinking about it it makes sense since the decision to pay the outrageous rates for an ad during the Superbowl must be driven by strong emotions (confidence or desperation). In this case, considering there's no clear moat for any of the big players, I believe it's the latter.
If your thesis was correct, why wouldn't some of those "outflows" go to GOOG or NVDA?
replyThey would. You can see how resilient GOOG has been during this recent draw-down, and how much growth it has had even as AI sells off.
replyAI sells off… if this is a selloff than I see what everyone is talking about when they are saying we in a bubble :)
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replyThat’s harsh! But the alternative is to discuss economic theories on reddit.
replyAnd why would anyone participate in their IPOs? They would be crazily overvalued, like Figma or worse.
replyI really wonder is there even enough dump money from them to sell the stock they hold. Not to mention even raising any new capital... Is there really enough bag holders that will run after these stock with large enough piles of money?
replyTo be fair, Facebook was at the time viewed by many as crazily overvalued.
replyMight as well long NVDA?
replyThere are many bitter lessons ...
replyCould you be more specific? Because NVDA has a consistent 20 year growth of something like 400x and +30%/yr, so I don't think the bitter lessons are there.
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