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> What am I missing?

VRAM capacity given the Cerebras/Groq architecture compared to Nvidia.

In parallel, RAM contracts that Nvidia has negotiated well into the future that other manufacturers have been unable to secure.

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> let every part of the market slip away.

Which part of the market has slept away, exactly ? Everything you wrote is supposition and extrapolation. Nvidia has a chokehold on the entire market. All other players still exist in the small pockets that Nvidia doesn’t have enough production capacity to serve. And their dev ecosystem is still so far ahead of anyone else. Which providers gets chosen to equip a 100k chips data center goes so far beyond the raw chip power.

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> Nvidia has a chokehold on the entire market.

You're obviously not looking at expected forward orders for 2026 and 2027.

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I think most estimates have Nvidia at more or less stable share of CoWoS capacity (around 60%), which is ~doubling in '26.
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> What am I missing?

Largest production capacity maybe?

Also, market demand will be so high that every player's chips will be sold out.

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> Largest production capacity maybe?

Anyone can buy TSMC's output...

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Which I'm sure is 100% reserved through at least 2030.
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Can anyone buy TSMC though?
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No. TSMC will not take the risk on allocating capacity to just anyone given the opportunity cost.
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Man I hope someone drinks Nvidia's milk shake. They need to get humbled back to the point where they're desperate to sell gpus to consumers again.

Only major road block is cuda...

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I believe they licensed smth from groq
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Well they `acquired` groq for a reason.
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