In my opinion that is just mathematical obfuscation. They will not be able to resist the urge to have a random looking token that through some obscure process can be mapped back to a person. If not at first, it will appear in some update after people stop talking about it. Discord knows what people are talking about.

If that was a valid need, it would be solved entirely differently. ZK algorithms are a complete and privacy-preserving solution to that problem.

I find it impossible to believe that age verification services are rolled out for what they say they are.

I don't understand – what's the point of not collecting mass amounts of personal identity documents and face scans and linking them to online identities?

Yes, and it is very easy. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46223051 "Flash a driver's license at a liquor store to buy a single-use token" And to save a debate, you can swap the phrase "liquor store" for "store" aka supermarket/grocery store.