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These AI companies are all in the same boat. At current operating costs and profit margins they can't hope to pay back the investment, so they have to pull tricks like rebranding models and downgrading offerings silently. There's no oversight of this industry. The consumer protection dept in the US was literally shut down by the administration, and even if they had not been, this technology is too opaque for anyone to really be able to tell if today they're giving you a lower model than what you paid for yesterday.

I'm convinced they're all doing everything they can in the background to cut costs and increase profits.

I can't prove that Gemini 3 is dumber than when it came out because of the non deterministic nature of this technology, but it sure feels like it.

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> a $20 floor and a $200 cap, no exceptions

Google caps at $250

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opus 4.6 was going to be sonet 5 up until week of release. The price bump is even bigger than you realize because they don't let you run opus 4.6 at full speed unless you pay them an extra 10x for the new "fast mode"
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If that's true, it would be surprising; the current Sonnet 4.6 is not in the same league as either Opus 4.5 or 4.6, either anecdotally or on benchmarks.
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It's quite plausible to me that the difference is inference configuration. This could be done through configurable depth, Moe experts, layers etc. Even beam decoding changes can make substantial performance changes.

Train one large model, then down configure it for different pricing tiers.

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I dont think thats plausible because they also just launched a high-speed variant which presumably has the inference optimization and smaller batching and costs about 10x

also, if you have inference optimizations why not apply them to all models?

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Doubling speed can likely come from MoE optimizations such as reducing the amount of active parameters.
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Isn’t Gemini $300 a month for their most expensive plan? That includes stuff like Genie and all that though.
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It kind of makes sense, at least a year or so ago, I know $20.00 unlimited plans were costing these companies ~$250.00 averaged out, they're still lighting money on fire with $200.00 but probably not nearly as bad, however, I'm not sure if costs have gone up with changes in models, seems like the agentic tooling is more expensive for them (hence why they're pushing anyone they can to pay per token).
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Cite a source. Your concrete claim is that, on average, for every $1 of subscription revenue on a monthly subscription, OpenAI and Anthropic were losing $11.50?

It seems completely implausible.

I could believe that if a $20 sub used every possible token granted, it would cost $250. But certainly almost no one was completely milking their subscription. In the same way that no one is streaming netflix literally 24/7.

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