Such a weird sentence. The correct causality should be: It's valued in the hundreds of billions because the investors expect a 1300% revenue growth.
Another example is how Isaac Newton lost money on some other bubble as well: https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/market-crash-cost-... [ The market crash which cost newton fortune]
So even if NEWTON, the legendary ISAAC NEWTON could lose money in bubble and was left holding umbrellas when there was no rain.
From the book Intelligent investor, I want to get a quote so here it goes (opened the book from my shelf, the page number is 13)
The great physicist muttered that he "could calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies, but not hte madness of the people"
This quote seems soo applicable in today's world, I am gonna create a parent comment about it as well.
Also, For the rest of Newton's life, he forbade anyone to speak the words "South Sea" in his pressence.
Newton lost more than $3 Million in today's money because of the south sea company bubble.
The moral of that story is that being a legend or smart doesn’t count for much in investing.
Intelligent investor is a great book though.
[1] eg he wrote more than a million words on alchemy during his lifetime https://webapp1.dlib.indiana.edu/newton/project/about.do
The norms of "rational" science hadn't really been established yet. There wasn't really a clear line drawn between alchemy and what we would consider chemistry today.
That covers everyone. Especially and including the rationalists. Part of being highly intelligent is being a bit weird because the habits and beliefs of ordinary people are those you'd expect of people with ordinary intelligence.
Anyone involved in small-time investing should be considering that they aren't rational when setting their strategy. Larger investment houses do what they can but even then every so often will suffer from group-think episodes.
I'm three of them and I never spent a cent on any llms, I doubt I'm the only one
If the S-curve levels off below that level OpenAI will be an unsuccessful company.
He is counting on hundreds of husbands: https://xkcd.com/605/
they'll probably fix it just like they did fix strawberry
their estimates will drop by ~20x which will be their max
as underdog in the race they'll grab fraction of even that
where are they planning to get that much money from? by showing adverts for 14h before you can prompt?
Garbage in, garbage out, same as before.
> Must be nice to pull numbers out of one's ass with zero consequence.
Seems accurate?
What they are saying is if Microsoft ends up buying the rest of their shares then i.e. Microsoft's total revenue by 2030 will be more than $280 billion.
OpenAI and Anthropic aren't building companies that aim to be API endpoints or chatbots forever, their vision is clearly: you will do everything through them.
The gamble is that this change is going to reach deeper into every business it touches than Microsoft Office ever did, and that this will happen extremely quickly. The way things are headed I increasingly think that's not a terrible bet.
The tools are good! The main bottleneck right now is better scaffolding so that they can be thoroughly adopted and so that the agents can QA their own work.
I see no particular reason not to think that software engineering as we know it will be massively disrupted in the next few years, and probably other industries close behind.
Doesn't mean the tools aren't useful — it means we're probably measuring the wrong thing. "Prompt engineering" was always a dead end that obscured the deeper question: the structure an AI operates within — persistent context, feedback loops, behavioral constraints — matters more than the model or the prompts you feed it. The real intelligence might be in the harness, not the horse.
And scaffolding does matter a lot, but mostly because the models just got a lot better and the corresponding scaffolding for long running tasks hasn't really caught up yet.
And even say the latter strategy works - ads are driven by consumption. If you believe 100% openAI's vision of these tools replacing huge swaths of the workforce reasonably quickly, who will be left to consume? It's all nonsense, and the numbers are nonsense if you spend any real time considering it. The fact SoftBank is a major investor should be a dead giveaway.
Evidence? I’m sure someone will argue, but I think it’s generally accepted that inference can be done profitably at this point. The cost for equivalent capability is also plummeting.
Here you go: https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-5...