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I second this. Is there anyone who actually believes Optimus is going to be a success and has any sort of data to back that up?

I'm not in robotics, but I look at humanoid robots and, while incredible examples of engineering know-how, they seem to be a long way from useful in commercial applications. Am I jhust ignorant of their true value? Seems like all I ever see them doing is parkour.

by londons_explore3 hours ago|

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Optimus could do really well if they had all the smartest robotics engineers working on it...

But it seems that ~80% of the smart people I know refuse to work for Musk on principle, and the remaining 20% prefer to work somewhere that pays well (Musk companies do not).

End result is he has a team of mediocre engineers working on it which is why their demos appear years behind some competitors like Boston dynamics and Unitree.

I think the same is happening to Tesla cars (not much innovation in the last few years).

by jandrese2 hours ago|

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Elon's hype level over Optimus practically off the charts. He has profit projections that have Optimus be effectively all of GDP in the future. Say what you want about Elon, but he does put his money where his mouth is and I believe he will try to manufacture robots. Also, the S and X models are old and their market segment is heavily saturated at this point so it makes sense for Tesla to exit those model lines.

Optimus is also a bit of a "squirrel!" for the market that he likes to talk about whenever sales figures at Tesla start flagging. Meme stocks only work as long as people still believe in infinite exponential growth.

by zardo1 hours ago|

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> Also, the S and X models are old and their market segment is heavily saturated at this point so it makes sense for Tesla to exit those model lines.

Car companies typically invest in new models in the same segment in order to stay competitive with the other car companies.

by JKCalhoun3 hours ago|

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Is there any evidence there is any kind of market a humanoid robot at all?

(Regardless, from what I've seen, the Chinese will own this segment too.)

by spprashant1 hours ago|

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Right. How many people actually want a remotely monitored robot collecting personal data, that will likely also require a hefty monthly subscription?

by jimmydddd1 hours ago|

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And he's talking about an eventual price point of $30K a robot. So a bit high for early adopter middle class folks who are just curious.

by SR2Z4 hours ago|

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There is some value in producing a lot of solid hardware, but nowhere even close to Tesla's absurd valuation.

I think they are perfectly capable of writing software to drive the robot - if Musk doesn't stick his head in like he did with LIDAR/FSD and impose some stupid requirement that handicaps the product.

by jandrese2 hours ago|

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But the whole shtick with Optimus is that they aren't writing software. It's supposed to be all LLM training so when you buy your robot you can give it orders like "do the dishes", "clean the gutters", "dig a backyard pool for me", or "build me another Optimus" and you can go off to do whatever while it completes the task.

Elon thinks it would be too expensive to have to write code for every task you might ask one of these to do, they want it to be fully autonomous.

Their engineers aren't behind keyboards typing C++, they're wearing VR headsets and feeding the data to a LLM, although even that is probably too specific for Elon's long term plans. Obviously he doesn't want to have to have people repeat actions hundreds of times before the dumb robots figure it out. Especially for "simple" tasks like serving drinks at press events.

by techblueberry3 hours ago|

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But how would we evaluate "perfectly capable" without evidence, there's just been no evidence they've done anything so far right? Am I missing something? I guess looking closer it was only announced four years ago. But it seems like it's only been smoke and mirrors so far.

by richardw3 hours ago|

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And China is likely to do to Tesla robots what they’ve done to the cars. I assume the bans will be incoming, because the US can’t have millions of Chinese kung fu robots sitting about pouring tea, waiting for critical mass.

https://youtu.be/gfJTX1Y0ynM

by WarmWash3 hours ago|

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Optimus is a longer horizon promise that allows Elon to keep kicking the "can of untold profits" down the road. Tesla car hype has fizzled, robotaxi is currently fizzling, so the new promise is optimus. Elon sells dreams and visions, not really products.

Tesla absolutely cannot keep it's valuation without a promise for it's delusional stock holders or actual massive revenue streams.

by 5o1ecist2 hours ago|

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Accuracy.

> Elon sells dreams and visions, not really products.

Do you want me to pull out a list, or can you google it for yourself?

Sure, he also sells dreams and visions. Sure, all the dumb money is going to regret it once the smart money dumps on them.

Yet, claiming he doesn't really sell products (and or services, which he also does) is absolutely ridiculous.

by rootusrootus39 minutes ago|

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I think that the point of the comment was not that he does not sell any products, but that he predominantly sells dreams & visions, if you use TSLA market cap as a guide. If you look strictly at the products he sells, the valuation of his company ought to be somewhere between 50% and 100% of Ford. By that analysis it seems like TSLA is about 97% hopes and dreams.

by rvnx3 hours ago|

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This it could be the real strategy. Because the more credible promises you make, the more valuable is your company. If sales of cars are spiraling down, then what promises remain there to keep valuation ?

by calmworm3 hours ago|

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The hype to fizzle cycle is shortened with each new dream and approaching zero, which is the true value of the company.

by MetaWhirledPeas3 hours ago|

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You are correct to be suspicious, but don't be impressed by backflips. Those are just for show. Doing "real work" is the test. As is doing real work for a compelling price.