When models get cheaper to run for OpenAI, they also get cheaper for everyone else. It gets commoditized. AI might be able to do more, but most people aren’t going to pay for a thing they could get for free. See the many models on Huggingface as examples of that.

And as the number of things AI is “good enough” at increases, the list of things on the frontier that people will want to pay OpenAI for shrinks. Even if OpenAI can consistently churn out PhD level math, most companies don’t care about that.

So a necessary (but not sufficient) condition for the math to work out is that frontier tasks still exist and are profitable. This is why CEOs keep hyping up AGI. But what they really want is for developers to keep paying to get AI to center a div.

I love that you are already confident fitting a curve. I want some of that swagger in my life.

> Models are getting 99% more efficient every 3 years - to get the same amount of output, combined with hardware and (mostly) software upgrades - you can use 99% less power.

Even if true, this still doesn't bend the curve when paying for the next model.

> If AI stopped progressing today, it would take probably a decade or longer for us to take full advantage of it. So there is tons of forward looking revenue that isn't counted yet.

If this is true, it's true for the technology overall, and not necessarily OpenAI since inference would get commoditized quickly at that point. OpenAI could continue to have a capital advantage as a public stock, but I don't think it would if the music stopped.

> 99% more efficient every 3 years

It's 2x efficiency. Then I'd take 50% less power instead of ridiculous 99% less power.

"If AI stopped progressing today, it would take probably a decade or longer for us to take full advantage of it."

AI stopped progressing, or LLMs? I really dislike people throwing the term AI around.

ok, but everything depends on your numbers being correct. 99% improved efficiency seems kind of a way too optimistic prediction.

> Models are getting 99% more efficient every 3 years

How many years total are you basing this on?

> Models are getting 99% more efficient every 3 years

The LLM industry has only be around for like 4 years. Extrapolating trends from that is pretty naive.

We said all the same shit about VR, dude. Even had a global pandemic show up to boost everyone's interest in the key market of telepresence. Turns out the merry go round can stop abruptly.