upvote
> While I have no love for the Iranian regime

Who say US is not regime? It is the world largest regime in the world, with bidders in every country to do their bidding, mass surveillance including their own country men. People blame only Russia, China, Iran etc when US have been doing the same for years.

Watch: https://www.youtube.com/shorts/w6_2Ul3Ght8

reply
> Who say US is not regime?

Who says it isn't? Regime literally means a system of government [1].

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regime#Usage

reply
> Who say US is not regime?

Unless they edited, not GP. 2 things can be a regime at the same time.

reply
I generally use 'regime' for autocratic governments.

Trump is democratically elected, for now.

I'm not actually sure if this is correct, English is not my native language.

reply
Regime just means ruling system. Western media prefers to use it as a shorthand for autocratic governments so it gotten a bad conotation, but any ruling system can be described as a regime, regardless of if you like it or not. The organization you work at has a "regime"
reply
> I generally use 'regime' for autocratic governments

Which is fine.

"In theory, the term need not imply anything about the particular government to which it relates, and most social scientists use it in a normative and neutral manner. The term, though, can be used in a political context. It is used colloquially by some, such as government officials, media journalists, and policy makers, when referring to governments that they believe are repressive, undemocratic, or illegitimate or simply do not square with the person’s own view of the world. Used in this context, the concept of regime communicates a sense of ideological or moral disapproval or political opposition" [1].

[1] https://www.britannica.com/topic/regime

reply
There is no precise definition. English has many synonyms where the formal meaning is the same, but one is used pejoratively because it's acquired a bad association. Regime is like that, formally it just means the rule of a particular party or system. It can still be used neutrally if not denoting a government.
reply
Iran also had elections, were they manipulated? I do not know. Were US people were manipulated using social media for elections. I do not know either.

> Trump is democratically elected, for now.

He was convicted felon before the election, I cannot believe that he won.

reply
The elected president of Iran is more like a Chief of Staff to the actual leader.
reply
What even is the plan here if the air assault fails? Boots on the ground? In Iran?

Other than nukes that would be the only option if they can blast the doors to the underground military cities. They will have to do it fast as the ships will not sustain combat for more than 5 days with their current ammo per the pentagon.

reply
Why would warships only have ammo for 5 days??
reply
Well in my opinion I would call that piss poor planning but I am just repeating what the pentagon said. For all I know this could be misdirection.
reply
I don’t think it’s possible to change regime without boots on the ground which is not currently considered. So there will be no power vacuum, at most Iran military will be weaken. It’s not a big win for the US but would allow Trump to safe face after his demands were essentially rejected.
reply
I imagine CIA political officers are on the ground right now.
reply
Iraq was not an Islamic regime in the same sense. It was not a theocracy. There were non Muslims in senior political positions.

The Iraqi government was a lot more stable.

What exactly do you imagine will replace the Iranian government that is worse?

reply
Iraq was attacking its neighbors every couple of years, Iran is not.

Iran has shown that it is remarkably sane actually, given the aggression shown towards it by Israel and the US and has made a lot of efforts to reach a deal.

Remember, it was the US that exited the JCPOA and now it wants Iran to give up all its misses so that they would be defenseless.

I have no love for theocracies, but I do think the Iranian system is a lot better than the likes of Saudi Arabia, which we're buddy buddy with.

Oh and I guess the founder of Syrian branch of AQ and deputy head of ISIS running Syria is better that what was before too, in your book?

reply
Iran attacks its neighbors through proxies: Hizbollah, Houthis, Shiite militias, and Hamas. These groups are armed and funded by Iran.
reply
Oh yes, and the fact that Israel is just sitting there occupying millions of Palestinians, attacking Syria, Lebanon etc. despite a 'ceasefire' has nothing to do with why these groups continue to exist, I am sure.

Iran's funding for these groups is a part of its 'defense in depth' strategy since it doesn't have the capability to project power otherwise. I am not saying that it is the right thing to do, but I am also not that surprised that backed into a corner, they're trying to build regional proxies. It's not like the US and Israel are not doing the same in and around Iran.

But I like how these statements, like yours, are always made with zero context and hope for an uninformed audience to upvote them.

reply
> Iran's funding for these groups is a part of its 'defense in depth' strategy

That's the rationalisation. Not a justification. Defence in depth was Hitler's rationale for invading Russia, is Israel's strategy for pacifying neighbors, and is Russia's excuse for invading Ukraine.

Creating weak neighbors is checklist-item one for any classical aspiring land empire. It's also tremendously destabilising to its neighbourhood. (It's not a coincidence that China and Russia are bordered by (a) shitshows or (b) countries militarily posturing against them.)

reply
> Hitler's rationale

Ah yes, give any discussion enough time and Hitler inevitably gets to be whoever your opponent is.

Unlike Hitler, unlike Israel and unlike the US, Iran has not proactively attacked.

Hitler had no reason to fear attack from Russia, Czechoslovakia or France. Iran has every reason to fear an attack from the US and Israel, look at what is happening right now ffs.

Western governments provide funding and shelter for extremist Iranian groups like People's Mojahedin Organization of Iran and various separatists movements inside the country, so please spare me this Hitler nonsense.

reply
> give any discussion enough time and Hitler inevitably gets to be whoever your opponent is

Because it fits. Nazi Germany was an aspiring land power. You can see the same effect in Imperial Rome and the Persian empires. (And, while America was conquering its own continent, on the peripheries of Manifest-Destiny America.)

> Unlike Hitler, unlike Israel and unlike the US, Iran has not proactively attacked

Of course they have. Its proxies are constantly proactively attacking everyone in their neighbourhood.

> Hitler had no reason to fear attack from Russia, Czechoslovakia or France. Iran has every reason to fear an attack from the US and Israel, look at what is happening right now ffs

Everyone has reason to fear attack from everyone. Defence in depth is a regionally-destabilising response to that security imperative. And by the way, Russia and Germany did wind up going to war with each other. Same as Iran and Israel, that same one whose anihiliation the former has been chanting for since its revolution.

Arguing Iran has been some peaceful country minding its own business is totally inaccurate.

reply
> Arguing Iran has been some peaceful country minding its own business is totally inaccurate.

Compared to Israel and the US, it would be a massive understatement to call Iran peaceful.

reply
> Compared to Israel and the US, it would be a massive understatement to call Iran peaceful

Sure. Which makes Iran a decidedly not-peaceful country.

reply
At every step, for years, they've tried to de-escalate while Israel and the US launched direct attacks against them. Embassies bombed, that general in Iraq in 2020, last summer and now this. All of these attacks completely unprovoked except for the fact that they are friendly with Hamas and Hezbollah.

They are practically Gandhi in this story.

Looking forward, the problem with being irrationally hateful is that its irrational. What's the plan here? Persia will still exist, and its unlikely any future rulers will like Israel, given what's going on. So what's the win condition?

reply
> At every step, for years, they've tried to de-escalate

They've also, simultaneously, tried to escalate.

> All of these attacks completely unprovoked except for the fact that they are friendly with Hamas and Hezbollah

"Friendly with" in the way America was friendly with South Vietnam and South Korea. (Also, the IRGC has directly sponsored attacks, e.g. Bondi Beach.)

> They are practically Gandhi in this story

This is either stupid or dishonest.

> What's the plan here?

Don't confuse specific criticism with endorsement of the war.

reply
> Because it fits. Nazi Germany was an aspiring land power.

Look at the mass murder by Israel in Gaza. Or how the US just overthrew Venezuela and seized their resources, threatened to take Greenland, taunts Canada and suggests more countries are in their sights.

And now the two of them teamed up to bomb Iran, unprovoked, saying it's going to "annihilate their Navy" as their citizens run for cover.

And your conclusion is Iran is the one that resembles Nazi Germany?

reply
> your conclusion is Iran is the one that resembles Nazi Germany?

In this strategic aspect, yes. So does Israel. So do Russia and China. They're all acting like land empires. And they're all pursuing a strategy that seeks weak, unstable neighbours.

It's a shitty strategy that does't earn one friends. The fact that it's theoretically coherent doesn't make it less shitty.

reply
> In this strategic aspect, yes. So does Israel. So do Russia and China. They're all acting like land empires.

The issue is that you seem to be ignoring the context and using this (weak imo) comparison to defend the US and Israel's decision to attack them.

reply
> by the way, Russia and Germany did wind up going to war with each other. Same as Iran and Israel,

Are you seriously arguing that Hitler was rational for preemptively attacking Russia because AFTER Hitler attacked Russia, Russia did not simply sit back and let itself be attacked but in fact started defending itself? And are you arguing that Israel doing the same is rational because AFTER Israel attacked Iran, Iran launched some missiles towards Israel IN RESPONSE TO THE ISRAELI ATTACK, therefore proving Israel right that Iran is going to attack them?

> that same one whose anihiliation the former has been chanting for since its revolution.

Oh and Israel has been nothing but wishing them happy Ramadan?

The reason Israel does not want the current Iranian system to survive is because it sees it as the only possible threat to its eternal domination of the Palestinians and its ability to dictate its borders in the Middle East.

reply
> Are you seriously arguing that Hitler was rational for preemptively attacking Russia because AFTER Hitler attacked Russia, Russia did not simply sit back and let itself be attacked but in fact started defending itself?

No. I'm saying Hitler's theory of attacking Russia was the same as Iran's simultaneous proxy wars with its entire neighbourhood. It's not theoretically wrong. Just antiquated, destructive and–in the trade-based modern world–increasingly counterproductive. (You're trashing and alienating your natural trading partners.)

And I'm drawing analogy between (a) "Iran has every reason to fear an attack from the US and Israel, look at what is happening right now" and (b) the nonsense argument "that Hitler was rational for preemptively attacking Russia because AFTER Hitler attacked Russia, Russia did not simply sit back and let itself be attacked." In both cases, retaliation is being used to justify the preceding (note: not initial) aggression.

> Oh and Israel has been nothing but wishing them happy Ramadan?

If your neighbour is developing ballistic missiles and explicitly calling for your anihilation, you're not going to "simply sit back and let [your]self be attacked."

> reason Israel does not want the current Iranian system to survive is because it sees it as the only possible threat to its eternal domination of the Palestinians and its ability to dictate its borders in the Middle East

Iran isn't a material threat to Israel's power projection into Gaza and the West Bank. Its ballistic missiles and nuclear programme, on the other hand, are an existential threat to Tel Aviv/Jerusalem. And yes, it's a regional competitor to Israeli (and Saudi and Emirati) hegemony.

reply
> Iran's simultaneous proxy wars with its entire neighborhood

Except that's not happening and is complete BS. It also assumes these proxies have no agency and would not have acted on their own.

> It's not theoretically wrong. Just antiquated, destructive and–in the trade-based modern world–increasingly counterproductive. (You're trashing and alienating your natural trading partners.)

Guess what would allow Iran to peacefully trade with Israel. The end of Israeli occupation of Palestinian territories. The reason Iran cannot simply ignore that occupation is because it would loose the moral high ground in the Shia/Muslim world. And having that moral high ground (i.e. its support for the Palestinian cause) is also part of its power projection strategy.

> If your neighbour is developing ballistic missiles and explicitly calling for your anihilation, you're not going to "simply sit back and let [your]self be attacked.

Given that Israel does indeed have ballistic missiles and is explicitly calling for for the annihilation of Palestinians, or even 'Arabs' in general, does that in your mind justify October 7th?

> Iran isn't a material threat to Israel's power projection into Gaza and the West Bank.

Not Iran itself, but Israel insists that Iran support for 'proxies' is. Maybe not to Israeli power projection, but to its security at least.

reply
deleted
reply
Iranian government massacres its own civilians whenever they dare to demand change. Iranians are also largely secular compared to citizens of most Arab states, and hate their government. They're also mostly Shia, which makes it hard for likes of ISIS and Al Qaeda to gain ground there, as Shias are enemies to Sunni extremists.

I believe there's a much better change of democracy / sane regime in Iran, than there ever was in Iraq and other Arab states.

reply
deleted
reply
Iran attacks through its proxies.
reply
Mossad was literally bragging that it is handing out weapons in Iran recently, but yes, Iran always 'attacks' for no reason and should not do anything no matter what happens right?

Same as the Gaza and Lebanon ceasefires where one side stops attacking and the other (Israel) keeps bombing?

I see how this works.

reply
deleted
reply
>Iraq was attacking its neighbors every couple of years, Iran is not.

Nonsense. Iran has been stirring up trouble in the region for a long time.

reply
Indeed, Israel just wants to occupy the Palestinians in peace.

Perhaps you forgot that it was Iraq who attacked Iran and Kuwait while Iran attacked no country but hey.

reply
That all being said, we are talking about different cultures. Iranians are on average more educated than Iraqis were/are, and the country is ethnically more homogeneous.

So I have hope that they'll find a way to organize when the current regime falls.

reply
And we’re mostly not religious at all.

We have Ramadan here now. No one cares. Arab influencer come and make videos and are shocked

Everyone eats and drinks during the days we don’t care

reply
I know that, but what I don't get is with a society like that, how can a theocratic government last for so long? Maybe I'm being naive, but authoritarian governments tend to fall when an educated population is against them. Iran looks like a weird case to me in this respect in that the population seems to be against (and honestly, seems to be quite brave) and still the theocracy goes on and on.

Anyway, best of luck in this. Your people deserve better.

reply
Thank you.

Yes, it’s complex. Firstly, the regime isn’t truly theocratic.

There are many online videos of regime family members enjoying parties and alcohol.

The second piece: I assume 10-20% of people were participating in the exploitation of our country. They kept the other 80% in control for a long time.

reply
Yeah this is what lots of Western people don't get. The cultural / ideological gap between rulers and those being ruled appears much larger in Iran than in most other Muslim countries.

Many countries have hardcore conservative rulers AND population, but in Iran the problem is mostly just the rulers. With better government, Iran would have so much potential.

reply
Yet another very recent account on HN claiming to be Persian and speaking about things on the ground in Iran. Can’t you guys at least try a little harder to be convincing?
reply
Please provide sources when claiming such bold claims.
reply
I don't understand this. What you call bold claims are easily verifiable facts. Demographic and education level statistics are widely available online, choose your source of choice.

I'm pretty sure there are also a lot of people on this site that anecdotally know this from their contact with Iranian diaspora.

reply
Not the GP nor claiming anything , but https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Iran is what you are asking for.
reply
>What exactly do you imagine will replace the Iranian government that is worse?

A regime that only controls the capital, leaving the rest of the country in a power vacuum leading to internal conflicts and sectarian violence that will eventually spill over the borders into Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Iraq etc...

reply
Nothing at all could be worse!

One of the issues with Iraq was that Rumsfeld didn't want to acknowledge that it takes more personnel post-toppling (to rebuild infrastructure and institutions) than during invasion. It seems like the current government could be prone to make the same mistake.

I recommend anyone interested in this to read Cobra II. It's an excellent book.

reply
Was ISIS better or worse than Iran's government is now?
reply
what are you talking about? Iran is a sophisticated country with a parliament and elections, with a powerful civil society. It has 90 million inhabitants. They graduated more women in STEM disciplines than the USA. Yes, it's a theocracy, but it's more free than Saudi Arabia for instance.

Are the Americans going to bomb the Saudis next? or only if Israel ask for it?

reply
What exactly did I say that you disagree with?
reply
“ There were non Muslims in senior political positions.”

What are you talking about?

Iraq is >95% Muslim, but there are a few different sub groups. With those numbers there were few in government then and now who are not Muslim.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Iraq

reply
Its very much Muslim minority, but having even a few in senior government positions (e.g. Tariq Aziz, who was foreign minister) is an indication that its not a theocracy.

IT was a dictatorship, of course, but not a theocratic one.

reply
Iraq’s Ba’ath party were secularists.
reply
No government and another perpetual war zone.
reply
Your description of what happened in Iraq was exactly the point of why we invaded. Iraq and Iran were the two biggest threats to Israel, we got rid of Iraq and now we are removing the only other rival to Israel remaining in the Middle East.

After this, Israel, being the only nuclear power in the region and having massive funding from the American taxpayer, will dominate the entire region. This has always been the goal.

reply
After this, Israel, being the most dangerous rogue state in the world and extremely divided internally, will likely devolve into civil war.

One hopes, anyway. That’s the best chance we have to remove the Nazis currently in power here.

reply
There is virtually no chance they will start a civil war, they are an ethnostate and the majority of their citizens are wholly in favor of continuing to expand.

>In August 2025, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in an interview with i24NEWS that he was on a "historic and spiritual mission" and that he is "very" attached to the vision of Greater Israel, which includes Palestinian areas and possibly also places that are part of Jordan, Egypt, Syria, and Lebanon.

>Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has suggested that Israel is destined to expand to include Jordan, and even beyond, to parts of Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt and even Iraq.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_Israel

It is absolutely not a coincidence that most of the places mentioned in that list are also places that the US has been waging war for the past generation: Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt, Iraq.

>Hillel Weiss, a professor at Bar-Ilan University, has promoted the "necessity" of rebuilding the Temple and of Jewish rule over Greater Israel.[44][45][46] Francesca Albanese and Amos Goldberg have said that an aim towards a Greater Israel is a factor during the Gaza genocide.[47][48] According to Yoav Di-Capua, one of the beliefs of the Hardal movement is "the obligation to retrieve the biblical land of Israel in its entirety as a pre-requisite for collective redemption which heralds the arrival of the Messiah"

They are driven to continue taking land in the middle east because they have a religious belief that their Messiah will arrive when they fulfill the prophecy.

reply
After Iran falls - Turkey is next.
reply
What does it mean "fail"?

What is the goal, to overthrow the regime, so success would mean a change of government?

(sorry, I haven't followed)

reply
The plan is a show of power. Trump will leave in 2 years, leaving much of the world in disarray because he had no plan whatsoever, and his staff is literally out of the movie Idiocracy. Nothing of lasting value will come out of the horrors that happened in the past 3 years, and in 10 years we (the world) will look back into the present with disbelief.
reply
> in 10 years we will look back into the present with disbelief.

You mean in 10 years, when the US is a stable and high-functioning democracy with independent media, a universally liked, charming, and polite president, supported by both the right and the left, who finally manage to overcome their minor differences? Is... is this the direction this is all heading?

reply
Maybe the feeling will be "I can't believe I didn't get out of there while I still could".
reply
> in 10 years we (the world) will look back into the present with disbelief.

This is a very optimistic outlook, to the point of naivete, though I really hope you are right. In reality, neither Trump nor his cronies are acting like people who imagine they will be out of power anytime soon. In 10 years the world will likely still be dealing with the fallout of this administration, if not still dealing with the administration itself.

reply
I think both will be true. We'll be dealing with the fallout of this administration and dealing with his goons and cronies for decades while still looking back at this time in disbelief and wondering how we ever let it happen and what needs to change to prevent it in the future.
reply
Hot take: Trump's denialism of 2020 and the use of '3rd term' is so that they can make a case that he can have a '4th term' -- that the will of the people to elect him overrides the constitutional limits of Presidency.
reply
> Boots on the ground? In Iran?

Trump is a coward. He knows that boots on the ground will mean massive losses.

The only way he does that is if someone convinces him that they can go in and out very quickly.

Unlike Venezuela I doubt there are people in the right place to oust Khamenei.

reply
Update

Turns out they bombed him

reply
deleted
reply
deleted
reply
This shows a real ignorance about the true culture of Iran. It is not a Muslim culture. They want to install the son of the shah, and get back to pre-revolution culture.

But liberals will be quick to tell them they don't know best, better to just keep the oppressive ayatollah in power.

reply
Maybe this is correct? I want this to be correct. But American entanglements in the Middle East have often overestimated the size of the “they” you’re referring to. There are many “they’s” in Iran, some of whom have been trained over time to hate the US.

So like, I think this is the right choice, but Trump was elected by MAGA to avoid these kind of entanglements even when it was the right thing to do. In fact, I think “liberals” (not progressive) support this action more than many on the right.

Traditional left/right is not useful to understanding people’s support of our foreign policy in 2026 America. Tucker Carlson will hate this way more than Chuck Schumer.

reply
The place has 90 million people, how do you even deal with this without throwing the whole place into chaos?

Besides, after this the collective west has no moral high-ground anymore, the global south will resent us more than ever. If other countries go to aggressive wars, our condemnation is worthless.

Trump is completely compromised and it was probably the powers that be who told them that this is how it is going to be.

reply
Chaos could be the point. That is the Libya model.
reply
> Besides, after this the collective west has no moral high-ground anymore

They never had any morals, all for their business gains look at Middle East, Africa and Asian countries where they were involved. Europe always looked other way when US does something and vise versa.

reply
The moral peak of the west was siding with egypt against uk/france in the suez canal dispute. Its been downhill since then. Especially nam
reply
There is no such thing as the "global south" other than in the minds of westerners and westernised elites (and elites are getting less westernised). From a western viewpoint you can lump the rest of the world together, but it makes no sense from any other view point.

As for moral high ground. Compared to whom? China? Russia? Myanmar?

reply
China
reply
So replacing a fascist with western antagonism and constant threat on American allies, with a somewhat democratic, weak, and western aligned government?

Sounds like a good idea

reply
It sounds like you believe that the people of Iran don't support the regime and are secretly loving america.
reply
You can say the same thing for Iraq, but here we are.
reply