I can't imagine applying to a job where I didn't already have some sort of personal connection. That was already true, and that's even more true now. Likewise, these days as a hiring manager I'd be unlikely to hire someone that came in via random application for the same reason

This is undeniably happening as well. Totally agree.

I just have had lots rejections, and some where I did have a good fit, that I don't think "AI auto rejection" is the only story. I have good credentials, several F500 experiences, no big career gaps.

The only real success I have had in the last few years is targeted emails (from who is hiring on HN) or through my network.

It's very different than at any other time and I believe it is a combination of a terrible market, AI rejections, and ghost jobs. And I'm sure there are more than a few ghost jobs.

If you don't have the time to sort them through, there's not much urgency to actually find someone, is there?

It also might point to a filtering mismatch of your get a high false positive rate.