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>massive block devices assembled using Vagrant and Packer has thankfully been avoided...

Funny comment considering lightweight/micro-VMs built with tools like Packer are what some in the industry are moving towards.

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And those lightweight VM base images are possible because Docker applied a downward pressure on OS base image sizes! Alpine Linux doesn't get enough credit for this; in addition to being a great base image, it was also the first distro to prioritise fast and small image creation (Gentoo and Arch were small, but not fast to create).
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Maybe in that alternative future of massive block devices some downward pressure on image sizes would have been applied just the same.
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It's not as easy; a block device has to be bootable and so usually bundles a kernel (large). And because the filesystem inside is opaque, you can't do layering like Docker does easily via overlayfs and friends. libguestfs does a heroic job of making VM images easier to manipulate from code, but it's an uphill battle...
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Great point about coding agents! Back then, Docker gave us 'it works on my machine, let's ship the machine'. Now, AI agents are giving us 'I have no idea how this works, let's ship the prompt'. The early Docker community spirit really was legendary though—before every hyperscaler wrapped it in 7 layers of proprietary managed services. Thanks for the memories and the write-up!
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Thanks for the kind words! I've been prodding @justincormack to resurrect the single most fun OS unconference I've ever attended -- New Directions in Operating Systems (last held back in 2014). https://operatingsystems.io

Some of those talks strangely make more sense today (e.g. Rump Kernels or unikernels + coding agents seems like a really good combination, as the agent could search all the way through the kernel layers as well).

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