I do think it'll be a while before LLMs make significant contributions to complex projects, though. For example I can't imagine many maintainers of the Linux kernel use LLMs much.
I believe your skills are atrophying when you use these things no matter how trivial the case. That compounds with their bias towards solving problems by producing more code to further reduce your productivity without them.
I do agree with you to some extent. I think anyone who uses LLMs will need to set aside some time writing code by hand to keep their skills sharp.
From where I stand this thing is going to provide great leverage to those who don’t simply just write code. I personally doubt the thing will ever get to a place where it can be trusted to operate alone - it needs a team of people and to go super fast you need more people.
Moreover, the price won’t be high due to competition.
I’ve changed my view on LLMs as being good, as long as competition is fierce.