The problem of pointer provenance is more finding a workable theoretical model rather than one causing miscompiles on realistic code. While there are definitely miscompiles on carefully constructed examples, I'm not aware of any bugs on actual code. This is in comparison to topics like restrict(/noalias) semantics or lifetime semantics, where there is a steady drip of bug reports that turn out to be actual optimization failures.

But the likely destiny of C++ is to inherit the provenance rules that are an adjunct to C23, PNVI-ae-udi, Provenance Not Via Integers, Addresses Exposed, User Disambiguates

As that name suggests, in this model provenance is not transmitted via integers. Every 123456 is always just the integer 123456 and there aren't magic 123456 values which are different and transmit some form of provenance from a pointer to some value which happened perhaps to be stored at address 123456 in memory.

However, PNVI-ae-udi has Exposure, which means if we exposed the pointer in an approved way then the associated provenance is somehow magically "out there" in the ether, as a result if we have exposed this pointer then just having that integer 123456 works fine because we combined that integer 123456 with that provenance from the ether and make a working pointer. User disambiguation means that the compiler has to give you "benefit of the doubt" e.g. if you could mean to make a pointer to that Doodad which no longer exists as of a minute ago or to this other Doodad which does exist, well, benefit of the doubt means it was the latter and so your pointer is valid even though the addresses of both Doodads were the same.