I don't know why I'd trust TikToks when I also shop at multiple grocery stores every week.

Maybe there are a few outliers, but food inflation is definitely nowhere near 75=100+% YoY. The official price inflation numbers are much closer to what I've personally observed irl than what you see in viral TikToks.

TikToks get attention for being outlandish/exceptional, not for being an accurate representation of the norm.

The issue is that this isn't really supply constrained inflation. This is price discovery and discrimination by major retailers. The amount of coupons, conditional sale prices, and member savings has skyrocketed. I have paid rather intense attention to the price of groceries since 2015 when I started purchasing for my business kitchen as we started providing prepared meals. In general, prices are very close to 2015 levels for the important goods.

I have some basic guidelines for an acceptable range that are from when I started in 2015.

Milk: $2.50 / g Frozen Fruit $2/ lb Cheese $3 / lb Wheat $3 / 5lb Oats $3 / 40 40 oz Boneless Skinless Chicken Breast $2 / lb

These are all prices that I am still able to routinely meet or exceed in 2026.

I track my grocery spend and even with three growing kids it's gone up 18% the last 6 years. It's not scientific but I don't see how your statement can be true unless by "many items" you're not talking about the bulk of what my family spends

I regularly buy whole chickens (locally raised free range) for $1/lb. With individual cuts comparably cheap (and often BOGO). I live in an above-average, CoL area too.

Any many items don't.

If you select the biggest changes then sure.

My grocery spending is up about 45% since 2016. CPI in the UK is up 38% in the same time, but then my kids are teenagers and eating more.

I remember seeing a lot of social media posts during the Biden admin about grocery prices... Turns out a lot of folks were just comparing the same cart, not taking into account discontinued items that were being auto-replaced with more expensive goods, or things like that. It wasn't always an accurate representation.