I do think I know more than the average person about computers. Probably most people on this forum can say that. People who know about computers are more likely to be able to smell bullshit with a name like AGI. It’s not that I am smarter, I wouldn’t be able to call bullshit with anything involving chemistry or physics.
I think, like Long Blockchain, ARM is abusing that world’s collective computer illiteracy and trying to harvest investor money in the process. Clearly this has worked once, as was the case of Long Blockchain.
> People invest in sentiment, in momentum, in all kinds of second order effects.
Yep! And this is why it is wrong for corporations to put out incorrect or misleading statements, as it creates a sentiment that is not realistic. This can then propagate in the form of the stock price not being realistic.
It's different for them to toss out a bet on the basis of 'other people will think this is AGI, I should buy it in anticipation of that' or even 'other people will think other people will think this is AGI, I should buy in anticipation of that'.
People playing the Keynesian beauty contest are not, to me, naive participants in the market getting scammed by a company adding 'AGI' to a product.
The idea that the first-order person exists in any great number is just so insulting to the average person's intelligence that it's hard not to read it in a paternalistic tone.
The CUBA ticker shot up in value after Obama lifted sanctions on Cuba, despite the fact that company doesn't invest in any Cuba companies. People will invest in things just based on a name. https://acrinv.com/silly-true-market-anomaly/
The average person generally doesn't know a lot about anything other than the specific niche that they do for a living. This isn't a dig at their intelligence, or at least I'm not excluding myself. I know a fair bit about computer science, but only a very lay person's understanding of basically everything else.
For example, I know nothing about electric or hydrogen powered cars, so I wasn't able to call bullshit with the Nikola scam a few years ago. I fortunately didn't buy any Nikola stock, but that wasn't because of any insight on my end, just didn't buy it. I am very glad that people who do know about this kind of stuff call it out when companies lie to potential investors.
Right but it doesn't follow from this that those people were tricked in some way. They can be second- or third-order bettors. Even the most sophisticated quant shop in the world, the literal sharpest players in the market, can bet 'just based on a name' if it fits into some theory about market dynamics or whatever.
> The average person generally doesn't know a lot about anything other than the specific niche that they do for a living.
But so what, it doesn't follow that because they don't know about X they are willing to trivially gamble significant amounts of money on X without even the most basic of research. "I don't know much about this so won't place a bet I'm not willing to lose" is not something that requires any great intelligence.