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> I don't understand what this article has to do with Hacker News.

Taiwan has roughly 10 days left of gas supply.

Oil and gas are not only used for energy, but are the primary component of many, many materials and chemicals.

Some of the oil/gas plants that were hit will take months to fix. Pipelines have stopped.

We have a huge risk of a global supply chain destabilization for any sector. Think what happened with chip supply with covid, and make it much worse since the manufacturers never did stop during covid, while there is a risk they will have to stop now.

Not all machines and production can be stopped and started immediately, so even a short interruption can have lasting and cascading consequences.

Covid thought us that the world relies too much on just-in-time production, and we lack buffers in many, many fields. This has likely not changed.

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> Right off the bat this guy is wrong. Nobody in their right mind would bet that the regime would collapse swiftly.

That "nobody in their right mind" would bet this does not, in fact, contradict his assertion that somebody did!

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> I don't understand what this article has to do with Hacker News.

The continuing slow collapse of the United States is extremely relevant to all things technology and business. The source of all our funding may be cut off. It's important to monitor what's going on there.

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Right off the bat your response raises questions because if the US leadership knew from day one this was a protracted fight then they stand having made entirely contradictory statements regarding their intent and expectations in that regard.
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> then they stand having made entirely contradictory statements regarding their intent and expectations in that regard

Time Traveler, rushing to a computer after seeing a Skyrim for Sale poster and seeing this post: "WHAT YEAR IS IT!!!??"

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Lying is second nature to them.
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I always wondered what alternative reality are people supporting the administration are living in and this right here is the answer. As someone put it, Americans love to fool themselves in believing they are the ones 'winning' because they killed more people even if it means completely failing at the original objective.
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I also love that he goes right to how much America and Israel have been pummeling Iran when the article acknowledges that to be the case, but rightly points out that even with that being true, the US is still in a losing position.
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Because knowing this would require him to read the article but reading and details are boring.
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I doubt reading it would have helped. The MAGA folks and anyone adjacent to them on the political spectrum are so propagandized right now it's nearly impossible to have a rational conversation.
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I stll dont understand what you are doing 10000 miles away from the presumed borders of your country, and even more why on earth you think you have the right to dictate to 90 million people (let aside the rest of the world) how to govetn themselves.

I suppose it is some right given to you from above, now where have I seen this before..

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> I don't understand what this article has to do with Hacker News.

Judging by your comment history it seems to be the majority of what you discuss. Maybe you're not the best judge of what HN finds interesting or salient.

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I'm basing that opinion on the FAQ that states that most politics stories are irrelevant. But sure, I'm one vote among tens of thousands, and it's up to the mods to decide.

It's most of my comment history recently because I have family and friends in the region and I'm admittedly triggered by the callousness, heartlessness and sanctimony I see in these comments. It's not healthy, I know.

People are trying to preach good and honest values but are doing so through narrow, biased, misinformed and presupposed views of reality that are completely detached from what's actually going on on the ground, which you could tell by talking to anyone actually living there.

But that's beside the point. I was pointing out an objective observation: The Trump administration has said from day one that if regime change happens, it won't be by American hands, but by Iranian protesters' hands.

These protesters are being asked by all sides to stay home so the US and Israel can keep bombing Basij outposts without hurting them. They're doing just that. Where is the failure? All that's being demonstrated is this analyst's impatience.

It might work. It might not. But we'll only know in a few months.

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The HN protocol to deal with this is downvote silently. Complaining about why and what is on HN is also in the FAQ as a no no.

If there was any serious preparation for a many months long campaign then why Kharg island is not occupied already?

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The HN protocol is also to flag articles that are off-topic.
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Where in the FAQ?
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> If a story is spam or off-topic, flag it. Don't feed egregious comments by replying; flag them instead. If you flag, please don't also comment that you did.

> Please don't comment about the voting on comments. It never does any good, and it makes boring reading.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

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> The US and Israel have been pummeling them continuously, and they're not done

Is this the winning condition? Killing Iranians, all else be damned?

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The win condition is that the Republican Party maintains control of government after the midterms and suffers no consequences for raping children on Epstein's island.
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While I always avoid making any comments on US internal politics - I constraint myself on only commenting on foreign policy since it affects things beyond US proper... That does seem to be the case, all else be damned.
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