I'm not convinced. I wouldn't be surprised if GPT-2 to ChatGPT is the biggest single jump in "machine intelligence" we will ever see. I'd bet all gains in the future will be more incremental, at least until machines surpass humans by a large enough margin that it's difficult to qualify—let alone quantify—how big any given jump is.

Without a big jump, we're just going to boil the frog (ourselves).

Unless it’s already happened and we missed it