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> couldn't win this against much closer, smaller and weaker Yemen. They just don't have functional military

KSA went it alone in Yemen. And from that–as well as various proxy wars in Africa–both it and the UAE have learned.

> don't believe they will do this because they love oil money too much

Loving oil money means wanting to export your oil. That said, I think the monarchies are more politically vulnerable. So it's harder for them to commit to this path. (It would also involve pissing off Trump.) But that doesn't mean it's strategically off the table, particularly for Saudi Arabia, which is less dependent on the Strait than the UAE.

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> KSA went it alone in Yemen.

there were many countries involved in coalition. UAE specifically sent troups to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Aden_(2018)

But the issue is that KSA just didn't perform on the ground, well equipped troups were overrun by Houthies with AK consistently. Not clear if they changed anything.

> Loving oil money means wanting to export your oil.

right, if Iran will take reasonable cuts, gulf states won't escalate.

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> if Iran will take reasonable cuts, gulf states won't escalate

Unlikely. Again, a reasonable cut today can turn into any ask tomorrow. It's worth tremendous costs to the Gulf to ensure the Strait returns to at least neutrality.

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