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> this just makes the soldiers on the coast the targets of the drones and missiles

Correct. That also reveals the locations of launchers, artillery pieces, et cetera. A winnable game if you have cheap bodies.

> it is a very large coastline to secure

To secure the Strait? Absolutely. To converge firepower onto a few beachheads? Not necessarily. And a Gulf land grab wouldn't be comprehensive. Just the islands (e.g. Larak, Hengam and East Qeshm) and maybe the land directly across from the Musandam Peninsula. (Probably not to hold. Just draw fire and trade back to Tehran. Hell, gift it to Trump.)

Kuwait and Iraq remain screwed. But if you're a Gulf exporter, that isn't necessarily a bad thing...

> There was a semi-stable equilibrium and the US ruined it. Now Iran controls the straight and it will be very very costly to go back

Sure. The point is how those costs will be borne. I don't think the emerging status quo is tenable for the Gulf.

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Without the US, Saudi Arabia et al would be significantly outnumbered in a war with Iran. It's very unlikely that they have the capacity to invade Iran, even without considering drones. Factoring in drones, they will simply run out of soldiers before Iran runs out of drones, and the Iranian army can conduct mop-up operations at their leisure.
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> Without the US, Saudi Arabia et al would be significantly outnumbered

True. Without the U.S., the most they can do is pot Iranian ships so they sue for limited peace.

> Factoring in drones, they will simply run out of soldiers before Iran runs out of drones

Both the KSA and UAE have access to mercenaries. They wouldn't be running out of fodder any time soon.

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