> have to release free open source models because they distill from OpenAI and Anthropic
replyThey dont really have to though, they just need to be good enough and cheaper (even if distilled). That being said, it is true they are gaining a lot of visibility (specially Qwen) because of being open-source(weight).
Hardware-wise they seem they will catch-up in 3-5 years (Nvidia is kind of irrelevant, what matters is the node).
I highly doubt they can catch up in 3-5 years to Nvidia.
replyChips take about 3 years to design. Do you think China will have Feymann-level AI systems in 3 years?
I think in 3 years, they'll have H200-equivalent at home.
You must have an inside line on information for 'China' -- those are bold predictions!
replyNo need inside line. Just look at chip node tech.
reply“They will always be behind”
replyCar manufacturers said the same.
It did take decades to catch and surpass US car makers right?
replyAbout 2.5 decades from the start of the JVs, but they did it. Semiconductors and jet turbines are really the last two tech trees that China has yet to master.
replyRight. When I said "they'll always be behind", I meant in the next 5-10 years. They're gated by EUV tech. And once they have EUV tech, they need to scale up chip manufacturing.
replyYou will always be wrong.
replyI've been right far more than wrong on this stuff. :)
replyWhich might they master first?
replyBoth are hard nuts but China is throwing massive amounts of money at the problem. They can already get performance or economy from each, they just need to figure out how to get both at the same time.
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