It makes it hard to say what the valuation of a company is. If the milestones are unlikely to be hit, then it's anyone's guess.
Even VCs don't get all of their fund money delivered into their bank account when they raise a funding round. It's inefficient and undesirable for everyone involved to have to move all of the money up-front, at once.
If you talk to anyone in startup funding or finance they'll be familiar with the term "capital call" which describes how committed capital obligations are delivered at a later date than the initial deal: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_call
The whole concept of talking about "runway" is basically calculating how much cash in the bank, that is actually in your bank account, will last. And this arrangement is different, as there are contingencies. In the past, VCs would just give you money in a particular series, and then if your business did well, they'd eventually give you more money in a later series. But it wasn't like they announced it all up front in, say, a Series A, but a big chunk of the money would only be delivered if you met milestones.
Funding doesn't work like that. Investors are giving you money as part of a longer-term deal where they stick around.
Obviously this is 1000x as large so I make no claims to knowing that sum. But it’s routine for startup funding to arrive in bank account.
> Nvidia invested $30 billion
> Microsoft, one of OpenAI’s longtime partners, also participated
There is a lot of non-cash, never-will-be cash, investment here. Credits for compute.
This is perhaps because the most common round to raise is a small/early one, and these tend not to have hurdles. Founders that only ever raised these rounds wouldn't necessarily know what happens in later/bigger rounds.
Also, I wonder if capital calls come with hurdles as well? That is, can an LP refuse to put in more money if the VC's recent investments have not done well? I would think not, since it typically takes many years to determine whether investments were good or not.
1) For a $100bn round, you won't get a single transfer of $100bn into your checking account, this is normal
2) Sam Altman is a liar and people (correctly) don't really believe him when he starts throwing numbers around
Maybe it makes sustainable sense but in the world of venture capital it seems the most profitable thing to do is lie through a Cheshire grin, every day.
> YC invests $500,000 in every company on standard terms. Our $500K investment is made on 2 separate safes:
> We invest $125,000 on a post-money safe in return for 7% of your company (the "$125k safe")
> We invest $375,000 on an uncapped safe with a Most Favored Nation ("MFN") provision (the "MFN safe")
Such a funding structure here isn't all that different: the funding agreement gives OpenAI the right to call on their backers to make certain cash deposits, contingent upon milestones being met. Deep down inside, "money in the bank" doesn't actually exist, it's just mutual agreements backed by force of law.
The first rule of tautology club is...
The milestones aren’t a hard-stop that forbids the previous funding round participants from providing the money if they still choose. It’s just an out.
You're also ignoring that the market changes frequently. If you only raised as much money as you needed for the next 4-6 months with plans to re-raise all the time, you'd have to constantly be sizing your growth plans up or down based on how the market felt about startup investing that month.
Imagine the company having to either do speed hiring or large layoffs every few months to adjust to the size of the fundraising round they were able to get this time around.
Nothing about what you're suggesting would be easier, or easy at all
Funding Round A: VC “A” invests 200M (100M immediately and another 100M if sales grow 10% or whatever)
At 6 months the company will either get the other 100M automatically (meaning they grew sales 10%) or they don’t (meaning they grew less than 10%).
Assuming it’s the later they can then do another round during which they try to get the other 100M. In all likelihood VC “A” won’t be interested (or interested at a lesser amount). They could go ask VC “B” for an investment but it will likely be less than 100M as well because they didn’t grow as much as “the market” anticipated.
Nothing complicated at all.
I’ll give you $1 dollar for your banana today and another dollar in a week when it has ripened. If it’s rotten when I come to get my banana I won’t give you the other dollar. You have your original $1 and you can still try to sell your rotten banana to another HN reader but you probably won’t get another dollar this time.If instead you have a ripe banana I’m sure you could easily find a buyer.
This is a common structure for large investments. It would be really inefficient for all of these investors and companies to have to have the money sitting in cash to do a deal and then transfer it into the company's bank where it sits and earns interest for years until they can deploy it.
Even VC firms who raise funds work this way. The capital is "committed" but investors don't wire all of the money over right away so it can sit in the VC firm's bank accounts, waiting. The VCs do what's called a "capital call" through which they're legally bound to provide the money they committed when requested, under the terms of the deal.
That effect kicks in well before the money actually does.
Also a lot of this "money" is in cloud compute and credits not cash so...
https://techcrunch.com/2026/03/27/why-softbanks-new-40b-loan...
January 26, 2024 - "Japanese investment holding firm SoftBank Group Corp has largely cleared its ownership in e-commerce giant Alibaba Group Holding, concluding one of the most successful deals in China's internet industry and a holding that spanned about 23 years."
"SoftBank, which invested US$20 million into Alibaba when it was still a start-up in 2000, said in a corporate filing on Thursday that it was set to book a gain of 1.26 trillion yen (US$8.5 billion) - about 425 times the value of its initial outlay - for the Tokyo-based firm's 2024 financial year after divesting its [remaining] shares via subsidiary Skybridge."
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/japans-softbank-concludes-run...
I get that people are scared of investing in China. But if I still made single stock investments, I would seriously consider BABA, it seems well positioned.
Tell that to Trump and his glorious way of bombing Iran. Nothing against the idea itself, the Mullahs all but asked for it to happen.
But the execution? That was a level of dogshit I haven't seen in the time I was alive lol. Even Russia was better prepared with their invasion of Ukraine.
Both Trump and Netanyahu had a somewhat solid perspective on not getting utterly wasted in the next elections. Instead they go on one of the most ill-prepared wars in modern history, with results that may seriously upend the global economy if not lead us to WW3 outright.
Michael Burry called out this structural manipulation play recently:
https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/26/03/51248353/michael...
... probably will though
What is this about? The title says "OpenAI closes funding round at an $852B valuation". It does not mention $122B.
Edit: the linked page's title is different and indeed states $122B.