the evidence is Alert system may not even work for missiles, or give very short warning (seconds to 1 minute instead of the usual 10 minutes)
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/israel-security/2026-03-...
If we are speaking of interception/penetration, these are also solved by Iran using several strategies that Israel/CENTCOM did not expect:
1. use of cluster munitions
2. exhaustion of expensive interceptor inventory (exchanging $7000 shahed drone for $3-5 mln worth of PAC-3 interceptors)
3. Use of penetration aids
4. Changing trajectory at the terminal stage
5. coordinating swarm attacks (let AD to intercept SRBMs, while the real damage is caused by abundant cheap Shaheds that fly too slow and low to be detected)
Sources:
https://en.defence-ua.com/news/russia_likely_modified_irania...https://www.csis.org/analysis/unpacking-irans-drone-campaign...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/23/iran-cluster-b...