>we would still have access to capable agents.
replyBut they would be outdated, right?
Would an agent that can only code in COBOL would be as useful today?
By six months. Surely, non-SOTA models can eventually get not outdated. And your argument ignores 'new model development suddenly stopped' aspect. If it stops, there is nothing be to be outdated to..
reply> But they would be outdated, right?
replyOutdated compared to what? In your counterfactual, VC funded agents don't exist anymore, no?
Your argument, if I understand it correctly, is that they might somehow go away entirely when VC funding dries up, when more realistically they'll probably at most become twice as expensive or regress half a year in performance.
> Outdated compared to what? In your counterfactual, VC funded agents don't exist anymore, no?
replyOutdated compared to reality / humans, their knowledge cutoff is a year further behind every year they don't get updates. Humans continuously expands their knowledge, the models needs to keep up with that.
Well, the Chinese shops are propped up by the CCP instead.
replyThat's true, but the "AI bubble bursts" scenario is usually tied to Western investors getting essentially margin-called. If that happens, the CCP won't suddenly stop their investment; Chinese models will most likely continue developing.
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