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> Federal prosecutors have a ton of power. Conviction rates are 98-99%.

This always gets thrown around, but the fact is they should be that high. Prosecutors shouldn't bring cases unless they have evidence of guilt beyond a reasonable doubt, and DOJ prosectors don't (normally) screw around.

When you see lower rates of conviction, as in the current ethically bankrupt administration, it's often malicious prosecution, aka "You'll beat the rap, but you won't beat the ride."

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I would be fine if high conviction rates reflected prosecutor's only bringing good cases. It doesn't. It reflects the odds being stacked against you and it being so expensive and high risk to defend yourself.

This high cost and power imbalance is used to force people into plea deals for crimes they didn't commit.

Let me give you an example: 924C enhancements [1]. This is where certain drug or violent crimes being committed with a firearm can add years or even decades to a sentence automatically.

Let's just say you live in a concealed carry state and you have a weapon on you. You're walking home and the police pick you up. You match the description of one of two people who were smoking drugs in an alley as per a 911 call. The other person was already picked up by police. He was unarmed. His story was that you sold him the drugs. He also claims you brandished a pistol.

Was there a drug transaction? Or was this simply two people smoking together? The other person had a small quantity of drugs on him when apprehended.

A 911 call mentioned seeing a weapon drawn. It was dark. You can go through versions of this scenario where you were the other person or it was a case of mistaken identity. Eitehr is bad for you.

What if the other person sold you the drugs and made up this story to avoid a distribution charge? What if as a teenager you had a minor possession charge? What if prosecutors believe the other person and make a deal for a reduced sentence in exchange for testimony?

You have a gun and now 2 witnesses who say you "brandished" the gun. So whatever charge you end up with the "brandishing a firearm" part (under 924(c)) adds 7 years to your sentence to be served consecutively. And they've stopped you with a firearm.

So what was a "he said, she said" situation has now turned into a situation where you could be facing 10 years in jail and defending against that could well cost you $200,000+, which you don't have. Or you can take this plea for 2 years in jail. What do you do?

[1]: https://www.nyccriminalattorneys.com/18-u-s-c-%C2%A7-924c-th...

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> I would be fine if high conviction rates reflected prosecutor's only bringing good cases. It doesn't.

There is a huge amount of hand-waving following this assertion without any evidence to back up the claim.

I'm not saying abuse of process doesn't happen, but this is just saying it can and then spelling out a big hypothetical without any proof that this practice is rampant.

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It's hard to find quantative data but one clear example is DNA-based exoneration by the Innocence Project [1]

> Among the many insights drawn from these wrongful convictions is the realization that a guilty plea is not an uncommon outcome for innocent people who have been charged with a crime: 11 percent of the DNA exonerees recorded by the Innocence Project pleaded guilty

There's a thing called the Trial Penalty [2]. ~98% of charges result in a guilty plea. If all 100% went to trial the system would collapse. As such, prosecutors coerce plea deals [3]. But the Trial Penalty works pretty much like the example described: if you go to trial, you will be overcharged and face, say, 10-30+ years in jail. Or you can take a plea for 2 years.

This Trial Penalty is made worse with mandatory minimums and add-on charges like I mentioned (ie 924(c)).

This effect has been modeled with maths and game theory to show hoow extreme outcomes cause people to plead guilty more often [4].

This is a well-known problem in criminal justice. You're showing either a complete lack of imagination or simply don't think this will ever be used against you.

[1]: https://www.innocenceproject.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/...

[2]: https://www.tisonlawgroup.com/is-your-sixth-amendment-right-...

[3]: https://innocenceproject.org/coerced-pleas/

[4]: http://www.bernardosilveira.net/resources/Plea_bargain_Novem...

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