If you put all your money on no, you get 4% if you win, and if Jesus comes back and you lose, money won't matter.
This locks up your money in the meantime, right? If so, considering the fed funds rate is 3.64% (and you can probably get higher rates on stablecoins), a huge chunk of those "winnings" is going to be eaten up by the opportunity cost of the money.
For example, recent events show that any bet can be selectively disputed by arbitrary reason ("we found insiders", "we found this immoral/illegal", etc.).
And for perpetual events - there is not a single week without a hack (https://www.web3isgoinggreat.com/)
Who does "you" refer to in this sentence? Polymarket itself?
I'm pretty sure if Polymarket itself decides it wants to screw you, you're gonna lose no natter what your strategy is.