> One loss sets you back 10-20 wins.
replydidn't look at the numbers, but this one sentence reminds me of selling options for 'passive income' (don't do that)
I drew the same analogy. You put up $0.95, a YES gambler only puts $0.05 (ignoring spread); you're providing "insurance" in case of a YES. In theory, even if the market prices reflected the true probability of the event happening, the more expensive side should be netting some "insurance premium" on average, right? Not sure, and idk how to observe if that's happening.
replyPolymarket is also holding onto the money in the meantime. Idk what they do with it, but it's not like some other platforms where they at least work with a bank to earn you some tiny interest on it.
They probably make interest off it themselves, so to give you any interest would cut into their margins.
replyLTCM doing that was an early example of "too big to fail". In the late 90s.
replyQuintessential hustler logic: inability to compare the gains from wins to inevitable losses.
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replyI assume all the 'no' bets have to have an explicit end date, otherwise the 'no' bet could never win? The time horizon is never unknown on these bets.
replyThe time horizon is unknown sometimes. One example event, "what will happen before GTA VI?" with markets like "China invades Taiwan" and "Jesus Christ returns." The NO for the second one is only 52c rn. Maybe that resolves if GTA VI is permanently canceled?
replyYeah, those sorts of bets seem clearly bad unless there is an explicit time limit on them. Factoring in how long your capital is locked up in the bet and the opportunity cost of it being locked up has to be accounted for in determining your expected gains.
replyForgot to add, I wet-ran the non-sports strat once with $100 and lost like $5 net across the month. Not enough diversification like I said, so yeah maybe I'd make $6 the next month. I could only find like 10 things that met all the criteria: ≥90c price, low spread, thick enough ask ($5?), not sports, not related to certain topics that I thought were rigged (eg Mr Beast, Trump saying keywords in speech), likely resolving within a week. Some of them also weirdly took longer to resolve than the title suggested.
reply> 1 loss sets you back 10-20 wins
replyGood old eat like a bird, poop like an elephant.