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Difficult to imagine a less moderate policy than starting a war which gets hundreds of thousands of Russians killed. Starting a nuclear war?
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Losing hundreds of thousands in war vs hundreds of thousands (or more) in labour camps.

Putting a bullet in your skull for accessing a blocked internet resource vs just blocking the resource or paying a fine.

Honestly I can name many things that can be different.

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Well for starters he might try and conquer Greenland.
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The nuclear war is the immoderate Russians.
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Except for the fact that the US started this war with the 2014 coup and the progressive arming of Ukraine.
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The main opposition party in Russia is the Communist party. Their leader was one of the first to call for a general mobilisation.
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Where can I learn more?
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Nothing to learn about, really.

We've got army block, FSB block, technocrats, bureaucrats and oligarchs. The usual (more or less) story.

The real problem is - we don't have system that scales horizontally. So when Putin goes people will have to deal with the vertical system he created for himself.

The problem here is this "for himself" part.

For this system to work you will have to be a new Putin (at least for some time) and for this you will have to enforce your decisions and shape your new system. Top to bottom.

Best thing that can happen to Russian (realistically) is that the power will be given to technocrats.

They are not neccesarily more liberal, but they have real education, they do understand a thing or to about economics, open borders, sharing of knowledge etc.

They won't be able to quickly change Russia, but given some time they can reshape it step by step.

Alas - we have FSB and Army blocks, high level of corruption and millions of people who see people like Putin as the best choice. They don't need progress and responsibility. They need their empire back even if they are just peasants with serfdom included.

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