At the point where you're arguing that it's better for a prediction market's prices to be less accurate, I think we've departed the original premise.
replyYou're predicting something which is happening in six months but is affected by data which is being published today. Do you want a more accurate price that comes in the afternoon, or a less accurate price that comes in the morning and then stays less accurate for months because the insiders ate too much of the expected profit margin to justify more expensive analysis?
replyI don't understand how your analysis works. How are you proposing people who are right early get run over by people who are right with certainty later?
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