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Yes, if we were computers that could be reprogrammed to new skills.

In the old days change was slow enough that few people got displaced from jobs requiring any substantial skill (although there was local devastation: for example, court reporters.)

Now, however, we are seeing change happening faster than people's careers. You can not realistically retrain into another high skill job--you're going to be the last to be hired. (There's a good reason Social Security Disability has cutoffs a 50 and 60 for how much change can be required!) And, likewise, someone who has worked a desk for decades is not going to be hired for a physical job. (Assuming they even can do it. I can't think of any physical job that wouldn't have me in a lot of pain in weeks at the most.)

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> New companies will appear doing things that we can't even imagine yet.

I read this take a lot but I don't buy it. This isn't guaranteed by any means. And even if it does happen, isn't it just as likely that AI is deployed into those companies too and they don't actually result in any job growth?

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You don't need to buy it. There are no guarantees in life. Get comfortable with being uncomfortable.
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This comment equates to saying “I don’t care what you think”, and is a perfect example of something that is literally never justified to say on a forum where you have no requirement to interact with them.

If you don’t care what individual people think then simply don’t talk to them.

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That's not the rebuke you think it is. You made a claim (not original, I've read it before), someone expressed doubts about your claim (which if proven false, will have dire consequences) and you cannot wave it off with "there are no guarantees in life".

Sorry, you made a claim, there's good reason to believe your claim may not pan out, and if it doesn't the consequences are dire.

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I don't think it's a rebuke. I'm just explaining the reality of the situation.
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You said

> New companies will appear doing things that we can't even imagine yet

I have a really big imagination, so I will believe it when I see it. If you have any real idea what these new companies might be doing in the future then I'm all ears. But until then maybe stop trying to claim some kind of future knowledge based on some handwaved nonsense like "we can't even imagine what the future will look like"

And then trying to claim that's "the reality of the situation", please be serious

Edit: Maybe if you think the future is so unimaginable, you should take a look around at the present. Can you identify anything in our lives today that was not imagined by anyone in the past? Think about how every piece of technology ever made nowadays, someone can say "it's like the Torment Nexus from Famous Piece of Literature!"

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Are SWEs the farmers of the draft animals in this analogy?
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The SWEs are the draft animals, to be put out to pasture in the AI future.
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