I agree with the notion, except that the models are indeed different
Some day maybe they will converge into approximately the same thing but then training will stop making economic sense (why spend millions to have ~the same thing?)
100% agree with this take. As I find myself using AI to write software, it is looking like gambling. And it isn't helping stimulate my brain in ways that actually writing code does. I feel like my brain is starting to atrophy. I learn so much by coding things myself, and everything I learn makes me stronger. That doesn't happen with AI. Sure I skim through what the AI produced, but not enough to really learn from it. And the next time I need to do something similar, the AI will be doing it anyway. I'm not sure I like this rabbit hole we're all going down. I suspect it doesn't lead to good things.
It a terrifying path we're taking, everyone's competency is going to be 1:1 correlated to the quality and quantity of tokens they can afford (or be loaned).. I prefer to build by hand, I also don't think its that much slower to do by hand, and much rewarding... Sure you can be faster if you're building slop landing pages for your hypothetical SaaS you'll never finish but why would I want to build those things.
It's not slower to do by hand. I race the AI all the time. I give it a simple task to write a small script that I need to complete a task that is blocking me... and the "thinking" thing spins and spins. So I often just fire up a code editor and write it myself, often before the AI is actually done after I have to cajole it through 10 iterations to get what I want. And when I race it, I get what I want every time, and often in the same or less time than it takes the AI (plus the time that I have to spend cajoling it).