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This chart tells the story pretty well: to get it down to a quip "some things we want got a lot cheaper, things we need got a lot more expensive"

https://www.aei.org/carpe-diem/chart-of-the-day-or-century-3

The story of this decade is that people think the economy is terrible despite the usual metrics like unemployment and inflation being not too bad. One explanation is that before 2008 young people could get on the housing ladder but we quit building single family houses and it got harder to get a mortgage -- you see cranes in the air in many towns and sometimes 5-over-1s going for miles in some places like the DC suburbs.

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Housing is supply constrained and not tied to labor costs in a significant way. It largely is tied to the price of land in it's location. It's not going to get noticeably cheaper with cheaper labor and materials. Although, I can tell you that the products that one uses in a home have gotten cheaper (fixtures, flooring, etc) with a few exceptions, copper wiring and pipes for instance.

Housing doesn't really fit into the conversation at hand about cheaper labor leading to lower prices.

Something interesting that touches on both of these topics (housing and product cost) is that, if you look at how much of household income is spent on housing and food combined, they stay fairly constant. As commodity goods get cheaper and cheaper, more money is spent on the inelastic and luxury goods.

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“housing is not tied to labor costs in a significant way”.

~30% of new construction is labor. ~50% of repair is labor.

Have you ever dealt with home repair or building or are you just regurgitating whatever the LLM told you.

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> ~30% of new construction is labor.

And what percentage of a house's price is the building?

> ~50% of repair is labor.

And how much does the average home owner spend on repairs a month?

I've been in my current house for almost 3 years. I've had one significant repair that would have cost around 3k. I did it myself but that was the quote. Not too bad.

In places where people are concerned about a housing shortage, the majority of the cost is land.

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> In places where people are concerned about a housing shortage, the majority of the cost is land.

This is true in constrained areas like SF bay area. Back when I was digging into real estate economics, I found data on this from HUD, they have a price indicator dataset. https://www.fhfa.gov/research/papers/wp1901

Also look at the Lincoln Institute, they have fantastic studies.

In places like San Francisco, 80% of the value is in the land. In other places, it's 15-35%. The historical national average is about 33% but now it's a bit higher.

Completely different economic rules dominate in constrained areas like San Francisco versus unconstrained areas like Phoenix. But most housing is in unconstrained areas, the constrained areas are expensive elite sections. In most of the country, house prices track construction costs, and the high land prices are effectively economic segregation that weed out antisocial people, causing these areas to be even more desirable and sought after, which raises the bar even higher. All "nice areas" are nice because of gatekeeping, and in the US this is usually high land prices. Traditionally, each city had its own immigration policy, and they would chase out of town people who weren't seen as productive or who were antisocial, and as a result, you would have poor people living on the outskirts of towns.

In places like SF, richer people move in, house prices go up but there is not much change in the population. In other places, more people move in and more housing is built.

A lot of the debate surrounding housing boils down to people imagining a world where SF housing rules applies and thinking this is appropriate national policy, or others looking at national datasets and thinking this would apply to places like SF. Much of housing and land economics seems counterintuitive, for example how cities get less dense over time, e.g. https://www.lincolninst.edu/publications/working-papers/pers...

But once you learn how to think about it, it all makes sense.

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> And what percentage of a house's price is the building?

Anecdotally like half, depending on the area. Plots of land go for $500k in Boston suburbs and new construction homes go for $1m.

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> Housing doesn't really fit into the conversation at hand about cheaper labor leading to lower prices.

A conversation that you reframed from wealth distribution to the weirdly much more narrow “cheaper products for end users”. Even though wealth inequality has been studied plenty in itself.

I’m not buying the mind-commodity that you’re selling.

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> A conversation that you reframed from wealth distribution to the weirdly much more narrow “cheaper products for end users”

A further up comment refers to robots picking strawberries.

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