I work at a 20-year-old mid-sized SaaS company. As long as the company has been around, product managers have longed for more engineers and strategies for engineers to ship features faster. As of around February, those same product managers across the org are complaining that they can't keep up with the pace at which engineers are shipping their features. This isn't just lines of code. This is the entire company trying to figure out how to help the PMs because engineers suddenly stopped being the bottleneck.

I don't know about 10x, but this could only happen if PMs suddenly got really lazy or the engineers actually got at least 1.5x faster. My gut says it's way more because we're now also consistently up to date on our dependencies and completing massive refactors we were putting off for years.

There are lots of reasons this could be the case. Quality suddenly changed, the nature of the work changed, engineers leveled up... But for this to have happened consistently across a bunch of engineering teams is quite the coincidence if not this one thing we are all talking about.

Read it as just a given rate. The number doesn’t matter too much here, if company B does believe claims from company A they are N times more productive that’s enough to force B to adopt the same tooling.

I feel like a lot of the AI advocacy today is like the Cloud advocacy of a few years ago or the Agile advocacy before that. It's this season's silver bullet to make us all 10x more effective according to metrics that somehow never translate into adding actually useful functionality and quality 10x as fast.

The evangelists told us 20 years ago that if we weren't doing TDD then we weren't really professional programmers at all. The evangelists told us 10 years ago that if we were still running stuff locally then we must be paying a fortune for IT admin or not spending our time on the work that mattered. The evangelists this week tell us that we need to be using agents to write all our code or we'll get left in the dust by our competitors who are.

I'm still waiting for my flying car. Would settle for some graphics software on Linux that matches the state of the art on Windows or even reliable high-quality video calls and online chat rooms that don't make continental drift look fast.