I saw a tweet about a trader placing an oil bet when they saw two military aircraft turn around on their way to Iran, via transponder. I believe before the deal was announced.
replyThat also sounds easy enough to fake for some plausible deniability.
replyJust as parallel construction [1] is used by law enforcement to conceal methods and practices no reason to not expect the same for financial gain.
replyin fact US army publicly admitting running a disinformation campaign involving flying planes knowing they would be seen by osint in the previous Iran attack from last summer
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