The oil market is, to put it mildly, fucking huge
reply> oil market is, to put it mildly, fucking huge
replySure. But these aren't trades in "the oil market." They're bets on Polymarket and a specific oil-futures exchange.
For sure, the real trading markets are huge. I mean the betting platforms.
replythe betting markets offset positions with the real markets. it's all connected
reply> betting markets offset positions with the real markets
replyNeed a strong source for this. The size (and regulatory) disconnect between the two would seem to make making markets in both a bit silly.
Are you implying that there is arbitrage between the prediction market and the real market? Until now we were assuming that the prediction market is self-contained, with its other side staying within the confines of the prediction market.
replythe other side can and many times is an arbitrageour which has positions in both the prediction market and the real market
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