Yes, but the examples where it's good has a name "insurance". It exists, it's generally well regulated, and is not easily exploited.
replyThe reason it works better is because in a prediction market, the person betting against you has no resources or ability to go after you for fraudulent behavior. Whereas an insurance company has both.
Why not get a real insurance, where it is actually verified that your house was bombed?
replyBecause there are many things where insurance doesn't exist.
replyOk let's work on that then. But meanwhile, close down unregulated websites like polymarket, where there is no verification of actual damage.
replyYou can't just "work on that".
replyInsurance works on repeatable, predictable risks based on models.
You can't get insurance against a military attack. But you can hedge using a prediction market. It's essentially the version of insurance for one-off events, that relies on wagers since you can't use models.
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replyI'm not saying it's not out there, but in many cases finding insurance for act of war is difficult. It is certainly rare and almost always far less accessible than using polymarket. If you have a very large holding you can probably get someone to write it for you though.
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