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by csnover6 hours ago |
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upvoteby chromacity5 hours ago|
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> The article isn’t arguing that if ICL facilities are disrupted, that’s it, no more bromine forever. It is saying that if these facilities are disrupted there will be an even bigger problem with DRAM supply than already exists because there is no excess supply, no good alternative, and no quick way to ramp up production.

This is literally the thesis of each and every one of these articles. Only one mine in the world can produce sand for semiconductors, etc. It makes the arguments incredibly persuasive and the predictions almost always wrong.

In reality... I'd wager that the semiconductor industry uses very little bromine compared to say, plastics; and that it can be recycled or sourced from other places with minimal technological investment (e.g., as a simple byproduct of salt production in the US).

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upvoteby zasz2 hours ago|
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I clicked through on the link that the article said showed that bromine was impossible to recycle. The abstract says "Here we propose a catalytic strategy that enables the selective and mild-condition conversion of all organobromides present in wastes into renewed bromides for Br recycling. It employs Ullmann-type reactions enabled by inexpensive Cu(I), simple ligands and hydroxides in DMSO–H2O solvent. This strategy achieved >95% bromide yields at a temperature ≤120 °C for complex real-world Br-laden wastes."

I'm sure it would take a long time to make this process fit for mass bromine recycling, but it's a bit hard to take the rest of the article seriously.

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upvoteby toast05 hours ago|
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> I do not see how what you are saying is in any way the correct approach for making decisions or managing risk.

What decisions or risk management can I reasonably take to mitigate the Bromine chokepoint? Or most of these deep pipeline logistics issues?

Try to plan purchase with more lead time, look for alternatives beyond the original sales market, accept alternatives with less than originally desired specs or accept more than desired price?

When are those not prudent anyway?

I can't make a bromide conversion plant, and my influence on governments is minimal.

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upvoteby mcmcmc5 hours ago|
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Plan for future market contractions, refocus on profitability over growth, assume future scaling plans may not be feasible
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upvoteby mmooss4 hours ago|
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Invest in futures contracts to make the price for you more predictable and within a narrower range.
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upvoteby jubilanti4 hours ago|
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> It is saying that if these facilities are disrupted there will be an even bigger problem with DRAM supply than already exists because there is no excess supply, no good alternative, and no quick way to ramp up production.

Then the title "Could Halt Production of the World’s Memory Chips" is a lie.

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