What if it takes 100 years to get to AGI or we never achieve it? All bets on AGI will just fail over and over again for decades in that case. It seems a bit like saying financiers can't risk not being involved with Faster-than-light travel technology. Yeah, it would change everything if we got it, but betting that we'll get it soon over and over again is probably not going to get you a lot of money.

We've been projecting both FTL and AGI as future possibilities for almost 100 years now. Do LLMs get us a lot closer to AGI? I think they get us a little closer and Moore's "law" making compute faster probably is a much bigger factor, but I think we're still a very very long ways away.