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As someone who has had the pain, if you're open to some prodding - one of your external hard drives might be broken right now. Don't risk it. Just pay a few bucks a month to avoid missing your memories. :) I don't think they've ever had a data loss.
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It doesn't even have to be Apple. There's Backblaze and Arq and Tarsnap, amongst others. Encrypt the hell out of it and make sure there's a globally redundant copy of your files. If a thief or fire/tornado/earthquake/tsunami takes out your physical drives, where are you?
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> fire/tornado/earthquake/tsunami takes out your physical drives, where are you?

Hopefully in a place where I can solve the bigger problems I have then!

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Always good advice! I did start backing up at a location other than my home many years ago, but it’s not in a cloud. The one time I tried Backblaze I wasn’t impressed but I recognize there are other good alternatives and certainly agree with your strong convictions!
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> Maybe the sync is fast now, but my usage would put my in a higher iCloud tier than I'd like

You can use Messages on the Mac without storing messages in iCloud. iPhone, iPad and Mac can all send and receive the same account’s messages, effectively staying in sync without actually syncing them to iCloud’s servers.

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