I believe right now we are still in the phase of “how can AI help engineers write better software”, but are slowly shifting to “how can engineers help AI write better software.” This will bring in a new herd of engineers with completely different views on what software is, and how to best go about building computer interactions.
Vibe coding or LLM accelerated development is going to turn this on its head. Everyone will be able to afford custom software to fit their specific needs and preferences. Where Salesforce currently has 150,000 customers, imagine 150,000 customers all using their own customised CRM. The scope for software expansion is unbelievably large right now.
Jevons paradox would be if despite software becoming cheaper to produce the total spend on producing software would increase because the increase in production outruns the savings
Jevons paradox applies when demand is very elastic, i.e. small changes in price cause large changes in quantity demanded. It's a property of the market.
He's saying that agents make code much cheaper, therefore there will be a large increase in demand for code. This appears to be exactly what you're describing.
I honestly think this is ideal. Video games aside, I think one day we'll look back and realize just how insane it was that we built software for millions or even billions of users to use. People can now finally build the software that does exactly what they've wanted their software to do without competing priorities and misaligned revenue models working against them. One could argue this kind of software, by definition, is higher quality.
I could see maybe more customization of said software, but not totally fresh. I do agree that people will invent more one-off throwaway software, though.
My view is actually the opposite. Software now belongs to cattle, not pet. We should use one-offs. We should use micro-scale snippets. Speaking language should be equivalent to programming. (I know, it's a bit of pipe dream)
In that sense, exe.dev (and tailscale) is a bit like pet-driven projects.
As for the average quality: it’s unclear.
My intuition is that agents lift up the floor to some degree, but at the same time will lead to more software being produced that’s of mediocre quality, with outliers of higher quality emerging at a higher rate than before.
If you're doing anything complicated, Excel just doesn't make sense anymore. it'll still the be data exchange format (at least, something more advanced than csv), but it's no longer the only frontend.
"No one uses" is no longer the insult it once was. I don't need or want to make software for every last person on the world to use. I have a very very small list of users (aka me) that I serve very well with most of the software that I generate these days outside of work.
It certainly is for lots of businesses, otherwise they go out of business.
There is something called 'revenue' which they need to make from customers which are their 'users', and that revenue pays for the 'operating costs' which includes payroll, office rent, infrastructure etc.
This just means that it is important than ever to know what to build just as how it is built. It is unrealistic for a business to disregard that and to build anything they want and end up with zero users.
No users, No revenue. No revenue, No business.
If you wanted to, you could make an argument about the principal-agent problem - that as hunter-gatherers or subsistence, farmers, our quality versus quantity decisions only affected us, whereas in a market economy, you could argue that one person’s quality versus quantity decision affects someone else.
But dismantling capitalism will not solve this problem. It just moves the decision-making to a different group of people. Those people will face the same trade-offs and the same incentives. After the Revolution, even the most loyal comrade will have to contend with the fact that they can choose to provide the honourable working class with more of a thing if they drop the quality.